The Nerdy Approach to Super Bowl LI

Anyone who knows me knows that if I’d spent 1/3 the time studying in school that I do studying sports, who knows what I could have accomplished in life. But the past is the past, and what’s present and future is this pretty big football game on Sunday night.

So of course I decided to delve deeper into the numbers. I don’t just wanna know who scored the most points and who allowed the fewest, and vice versa. I want to know how. More specifically I want to know how what we do matches up with what they do. I don’t want to just look at blanket rushing yards and yards allowed, I want to know what is likely to happen if we run over the right tackle, based on our success doing it, and their success stopping opponents. So I’ve done the homework, probably much to my boss’ chagrin, and have put this together for you.

For those unfamiliar with DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) it takes into consideration things like an opponent, down and distance, field position, and score. For a more complete and accurate explanation, check the guys out at Football Outsiders where they explain it all here. It’s a far better way of looking at a team than raw counting stats. Is it perfect? No, but it paints a lot more realistic of a picture than say, the stats that tell you the Patriots defense has been the league’s top unit. Psssssst, it hasn’t, and it’s not even close.

So I’ve taken the numbers and matched them up so you can get an idea of what to expect when we have the ball, when they have it, and how the special teams might shake out. If you see red lettering, it means it’s something that’s a Falcons advantage. If it’s blue, then that particular stat and trend would favor the Patriots. If both are colored, then it’s one of those pivotal swing match-ups that will likely determine this game. And if they’re both still the standard text color, then it’s not something either team excels at, or is bad at, but, if one team does get an edge there, it could be vital.

Obviously this is no guarantee of what will happen, or even close. They still gotta strap em up on Saturday night, but I think it can give you a good idea of what to expect. Take these and do what you may, closer to game time I’ll break it down in to what I expect to see Sunday night, and where the Pats will exploit us, but also where we can return the favor.

 

Overall

Atlanta – DVOA 19.6% (3rd), Weighted DVOA 19.8% (4th), Schedule 0.1% (16th)

New England – DVOA 25.3% (1st), Weighted DVOA 34.0% (1st), Schedule -8.0% (32nd)

 

Atlanta Offense – DVOA 25.3% (1st), Weighted DVOA 24.8% (2nd), Schedule -2.5% (2nd)

N.E. Defense – DVOA -1.5% (16th), Weighted DVOA -6.0% (11th), Schedule -7.1% (32nd)

Difference – 23.8%

 

Atlanta Defense – DVOA 8.1% (27th), Weighted DVOA 5.6% (22nd), Schedule -2.0% (24th)

N.E. Offense – DVOA 21.1% (2nd), Weighted DVOA 25.0% (1st), Schedule -0.7% (10th)

Difference – -29.2%

 

Atlanta Net Yards Per Drive – 6.02 (2nd)

New England Net Yards Per Drive – 6.66 (1st)

 

Atlanta Net Points Per Drive – 0.77 (2nd)

New England Net Points Per Drive – 1.11 (1st)

 

Atlanta Net Drive Success Rate – .037 (4th)

New England Net Drive Success Rate – .080 (1st)

When we have the ball:

Running Game –

Atlanta Run Offense – 1.7 % (7th)

New England Run Defense – -23.7% (4th)

 

Devonta Freeman – DYAR 147 (12th), DVOA 6.3% (14th), Success Rate 50% (12th)

Tevin Coleman – DYAR 86 (18th), DVOA 9.7% (12th), Success Rate 45% (25th)

 

Atlanta Adjusted Line Yards – 4.09 (10th)

New England Opponent Adjust Line Yards – 3.69 (11th)

 

Atlanta Power Success – 61% (17th)

New England Opponent Power Success – 63% (14th)

 

Atlanta Stuffed – 22% (23rd)

New England Opponent Stuffed – 17% (21st)

 

Atlanta 2nd Level Yards – 1.3 (7th)

New England Opponent 2nd Level Yards – 1.03 (7th)

 

Atlanta Open Field Yards – 1.2 (3rd)

New England Opponent Open Field Yards – 0.27 (1st)

 

Atlanta Left End ALY – 3.77 (22nd), 16% of 379 runs

New England Opponent Left End ALY – 3.00 (5th), 8% of 323 runs

 

Atlanta Left Tackle ALY – 4.41 (10th), 12% of runs

New England Opponent Left Tackle ALY – 4.09 (17th), 14% of runs

 

Atlanta Mid/Guard ALY – 4.26 (4th), 42 % of runs

New England Opponent Mid/Guard ALY – 3.76 (13th), 57% of runs

 

Atlanta Right Tackle ALY – 4.78 (4th), 13% of runs

New England Opponent Right Tackle ALY – 3.08 (6th), 7% of runs

 

Atlanta Right End ALY – 3.15 (21st), 16 % of runs

New England Opponent Right End ALY – 3.73 (20th), 13% of runs

 

Passing Game-

Atlanta Pass Offense – 53.0% (1st)

New England Pass Defense – 13.9% (23rd)

 

Matt Ryan – DYAR 1918 (1st), DVOA 40.2% (1st), 83.4 (1st)

 

Julio Jones – DYAR 458 (1st), DVOA 31.8% (2nd), Catch Rate 64.3%, DPI 6/132

Mohamed Sanu – DYAR 124 (43rd), DVOA 6.7% (34th), Catch Rate 73%, DPI 1/1

Taylor Gabriel – DYAR 189 (24th), DVOA 36.6 % (1st), Catch Rate 70%, DPI 1/25

Aldrick Robinson – DYAR 90 (55th), DVOA 24.1% (NA), Catch Rate 63%, DPI 0/0

Justin Hardy – DYAR 70 (59th), DVOA 14.8% (NA), Catch Rate 68%, DPI 0/0

 

Austin Hooper – DYAR 107 (11th), 47.1% (2nd), Catch Rate 70%, DPI 1/11

Levine Toilolo – DYAR 84 (16th), 56.8% (NA), Catch Rate 68%, DPI 0/0

 

Devonta Freeman – DYAR 140 (5th), 24.5% (6th), Catch Rate 83%

Tevin Coleman – DYAR 135 (6th), 48.5% (1st), Catch Rate 78%

 

N.E. vs #1 WR – DVOA 3.8% (20th), PA/G 8.4, YPG 73.1 (League Avg 8.4 & 69.8)

N.E. vs #2 WR – DVOA 6.6% (8th), PA/G 6.3, YPG 45.6 (League Avg 6.4 & 49.4)

N.E. vs Other WR – DVOA 5.4% (19th), PA/G 7.0, YPG 50.6 (League Avg 6.8 & 50.6)

N.E. vs TE – DVOA 3.1% (14th), PA/G 8.6, YPG 49.6 (League Avg 7.4 & 54.3)

N.E. vs RB – DVOA 5.7% (20th), PA/G 7.8, YPG 50.3 (League Avg 6.7 & 40.2)

 

N.E. vs Left – DVOA -21.2% (3rd) (Avg -1.3%)

N.E. vs Middle – DVOA 19.3% (17th) (Avg 12.8%)

N.E. vs Right – DVOA 9.8% (29th) (Avg -6.8%)

Deep – DVOA 20.8% (16th); Left -44.5%, Mid 97.6%, Right 39.8% (Avg, 13.0%, 48.3%, 15.1%)

Short – DVOA -4.7% (15th); Left -14.3%, Mid 2.8%, Right -1.2% (Avg, -5.1%, 5.7%, -11.9%)

 

Atlanta Opponents Adjusted Sack Rate – 6.5% (23rd), Sacks Allowed 37

Patriots Adjusted Sack Rate – 5.1% (26th), Sacks 34

Drive Stats-

Atlanta Yards Per Drive – 40.53 (1st)

New England Yards Allowed Per Drive – 28.82 (8th)

 

Atlanta Points Per Drive – 3.06 (1st)

New England Points Allowed Per Drive – 1.42 (1st)

 

Atlanta Drive Success Rate – .778 (1st)

New England Opponent Drive Success Rate – .662 (5th)

 

Atlanta Turnovers Per Drive – .066 (2nd)

New England Forced Turnovers Per Drive – .119 (17th)

 

Atlanta Interceptions Per Drive – .042 (6th)

New England Opponent Interceptions Per Drive – 0.73 (17th)

 

Atlanta Fumbles Per Drive – .024 (3rd)

New England Opponent Fumbles Per Drive – .045 (17th)

 

Atlanta Avg LOS – 28.52 (13th)

New England Opponent Avg LOS – 24.87 (1st)

 

Atlanta Plays Per Drive – 6.15 (13th)

New England Opponent Plays Per Drive – 5.79 (11th)

 

Atlanta Punts Per Drive – .289 (1st)

New England Opponent Punts Per Drive – .452 (6th)

 

Atlanta 3 & Outs Per Drive – .145 (1st)

New England Opponent 3 & Outs Per Drive – .249 (7th)

 

Atlanta Pts/Red Zone – 5.24 (6th)

New England Opponent Pts/Red Zone – 4.55 (6th)

 

Atlanta Avg Score Differential – 4.92 (2nd)

New England Opponents Avg Score Differential – -9.76 (1st)
When they have the ball:

Running Game –

Atlanta Run Defense – 2.5% (29th)

New England Run Offense – -3.4% (17th)

Difference – 0.9%

 

Legarette Blount – DYAR 132 (14th), DVOA 1.5% (18th), Success Rate 44% (28th)

Dion Lewis – DYAR 74 (19th), DVOA 21.1% (NA), Success Rate NA

 

Atlanta Opponent Adjusted Line Yards – 4.16 (25th)

New England Adjust Line Yards – 4.15 (9th)

 

Atlanta Opponent Power Success – 63% (16th)

New England Power Success – 59% (22nd)

 

Atlanta Opponent Stuffed – 19% (18th)

New England Stuffed – 20% (16th)

 

Atlanta Opponent 2nd Level Yards – 1.29 (26th)

New England 2nd Level Yards – 1.10 (21st)

 

Atlanta Opponent Open Field Yards – 0.64 (13th)

New England Open Field Yards – 0.60 (21st)

 

Atlanta Opponent Left End ALY – 3.56 (12th), 13% of 303 runs

New England Left End ALY – 4.88 (7th), 10% of 409 runs

 

Atlanta Opponent Left Tackle ALY – 3.66 (13th), 14% of runs

New England Left Tackle ALY – 3.53 (23rd), 13% of runs

 

Atlanta Opponent Mid/Guard ALY – 4.24 (27th), 50% of runs

New England Mid/Guard ALY – 4.12 (7th), 59% of runs

 

Atlanta Opponent Right Tackle ALY – 4.99 (32nd), 15% of runs

New England Right Tackle ALY – 4.01 (12th), 13% of runs

 

Atlanta Opponent Right End ALY – 3.99 (24th), 9% of runs

New England Right End ALY – 5.48 (3rd), 4% of runs

 

Passing Game-

Atlanta Pass Defense – 11.6% (19th)

New England Pass Offense – 50.5% (2nd)

Difference – -62.1%

 

Tom Brady – DYAR 1295 (5th), DVOA 33.8% (2nd), 83.1 (2nd)

 

Julian Edelman – DYAR 48 (65th), DVOA -8.7% (69th), Catch Rate 62.0%, DPI 1/12

Chris Hogan – DYAR 145 (35th), DVOA 18.1% (11th), Catch Rate 66%, DPI 1/8

Malcom Mitchell – DYAR 131 (39th), DVOA 19.5% (7th), Catch Rate 67%, DPI 2/78

Danny Amendola – DYAR 84 (57th), DVOA 26.8% (NA), Catch Rate 79%, DPI 0/0

 

Martellus Bennett – DYAR 200 (3rd), 34.6% (3rd), Catch Rate 75%, DPI 2/7

 

James White – DYAR 161 (3rd), 19.8% (10th), Catch Rate 70%

Dion Lewis – DYAR -25 (49th), -31.1% (NA), Catch Rate 71%

 

Atlanta Vs #1 WR – DVOA -4.0% (9th), PA/G 8.4, YPG 61.3 (League Avg 8.4 & 69.8)

Atlanta Vs #2 WR – DVOA 6.6% (8th), PA/G 7.6, YPG 58.8 (League Avg 6.4 & 49.4)

Atlanta Vs Other WR – DVOA 5.4% (19th), PA/G 7.2, YPG 55.1 (League Avg 6.8 & 50.6)

Atlanta Vs TE – DVOA 3.1% (14th), PA/G 8.9, YPG 61.4 (League Avg 7.4 & 54.3)

Atlanta VS RB – DVOA 16.7% (26th), PA/G 9.1, YPG 53.5 (League Avg 6.7 & 40.2)

 

Atlanta vs Left – DVOA -8.6% (25th) (Avg -1.3%)

Atlanta vs Middle – DVOA 12.0% (14th) (Avg 12.8%)

Atlanta vs Right – DVOA -6.5% (18th) (Avg -6.8%)

Deep – DVOA 15.2% (12th); Left 19.5%, Mid 69.8%, Right -11.3% (Avg, 13.0%, 48.3%, 15.1%)

Short – DVOA 0.3% (26th); Left 5.5%, Mid 3.8%, Right -5.5% (Avg, -5.1%, 5.7%, -11.9%)

 

Atlanta Adjusted Sack Rate – 5.4% (24th), Sacks 34

Patriots Opponents Adjusted Sack Rate – 4.7% (6th), Sacks Allowed 24

Drive Stats-

Atlanta Yards Allowed Per Drive – 34.51 (26th)

New England Yards Per Drive – 35.48 (7th)

 

Atlanta Points Allowed Per Drive – 2.29 (27th)

New England Points Per Drive – 2.53 (5th)

 

Atlanta Opponents Drive Success Rate – .741 (28th)

New England Drive Success Rate – .742 (5th)

 

Atlanta Opponents Turnovers Per Drive – .117 (18th)

New England Turnovers Per Drive – .046 (1st)

 

Atlanta Opponents Interceptions Per Drive – .070 (19th)

New England Interceptions Per Drive – 0.012 (1st)

 

Atlanta Opponents Fumbles Per Drive – .047 (14th)

New England Fumbles Per Drive – .035 (8th)

 

Atlanta Opponents Avg LOS – 26.08 (3rd)

New England Avg LOS – 30.66 (2nd)

 

Atlanta Opponents Plays Per Drive – 6.29 (29th)

New England Plays Per Drive – 6.23 (7th)

 

Atlanta Opponents Punts Per Drive – .386 (25th)

New England Punts Per Drive – .416 (18th)

 

Atlanta Opponents 3 & Outs Per Drive – .205 (21st)

New England 3 & Outs Per Drive – .238 (27th)

 

Atlanta Opponents Pts/Red Zone – 5.69 (31st)

New England Pts/Red Zone – 5.23 (7th)

 

Atlanta Opponents Avg Score Differential – -8.23 (2nd)

New England Avg Score Differential – 7.41 (1st)
Special Teams

Atlanta – 2.4% (8th)

New England – 2.7% (7th)

 

Atlanta Kickoff – -3.0

New England Kick Return – -2.8

 

Atlanta Kick Return – -1.5

New England Kickoff – 11.8

 

Atlanta Avg LOS after Kickoff – 25.6 (8th)

New England Opponent Avg LOS after Kickoff – 23.46 (3rd)

 

Atlanta Opponent Avg LOS after Kickoff – 24.49 (11th)

New England Avg LOS after Kickoff – 27.10 (1st)

 

Atlanta Punt – 2.2

New England Punt Return – -7.7

 

Atlanta Punt Return – 3.5

New England Punt – 12.2

 

Atlanta Field Goal/XP – 10.9

New England Field Goal/XP – 0.1

 

Atlanta Hidden ST Yards – -4.3 (23rd)

New England Hidden St Yards – 11.2 (4th)

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No Shine Off Chase Elliott’s Rookie Season

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Chase Elliott leads the field past us at Talladega

Chase Elliott isn’t going to win the championship this year, and that’s a bummer. But the mere fact that there’s such a level of disappointment over having to accept that speaks to the massive increase in expectations.

That veteran championship contenders, Denny Hamlin in particular, made it a point not to aide the 20 year old rookie at Talladega because they legitimately worried about him winning the whole thing if he advanced speaks to the expectations even his competition has for him.
Chase Elliott didn’t fail to win the title this year because he’s not good enough, or because he’s in over his head, or because he’s still a couple of years away from being a contender. No, Chase Elliott isn’t continuing his championship fight simply due to rotten racing luck.

In reality, the same can be said of Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski as well. The second round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup was not kind to three of arguably the top five contenders for the championship. Outside of Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick, the trio of Elliott, Truex and Keselowski were the class of the field over the duration of the chase as it pertained to raw speed. An argument could be made that in terms of speed and running up front consistently nobody was better than Chase Elliott through the first six races of the chase.

But running up front alone isn’t enough. Victimized at Charlotte by Martin Truex causing a massive crash on a day Elliott had established himself as one of the two fastest cars to derail his quest for a championship, his hopes went on life support when at Kansas a week later rotten racing luck bit after Elliott had established himself again as arguably the best car there.

Yet, in a do or die must win situation there he was at Talladega, up front and establishing himself yet again as one of the two best cars there. He went toe to toe with Keselowski, passing the dominate Ford on multiple occasions and proving to be his biggest threat.


But the racing gods decided it wasn’t to be for either contender. Keselowski detonated an engine and Elliott lost track position that without the required help needed at Talladega he just couldn’t get back.

But no one can say it was for a lack of trying. The rookie tried everything he could, making moves that left me closing my eyes from my spot in the grandstands from worry it was going to turn ugly. But there he was fighting every step of the way, and going down swinging.

Another testament to the respect he’s earned in the garage was the commitment shown to him by six time champion and teammate Jimmie Johnson. Already locked into the next round, Johnson pledged to commit to doing everything he could to help Elliott advance.

And boy did he ever. There were times you could almost see Johnson say, “I can’t believe we’re doing this here, but OK, I’m coming”, as he followed Elliott everywhere he could. Teammates or not, that’s a level of commitment reserved for people who your utmost respect. And for a 20 year old rookie to have such respect from one of the greatest drivers of all-time says something.

While the championship is off the table, plenty remains to be accomplished in 2016 over the final four races.

For starters, there’s the matter of getting that first win that they’ve been banging on the door of like a police officer.  There isn’t a person in the garage area that would be surprised if Elliott won not just one, but even perhaps two, of the final four races. Beyond that, they can still finish in the top ten in points.

The simple fact of the matter is that if Elliott’s future were any brighter we’d be advised to not stare directly into it.

When the 2017 season starts back up next February Elliott will be on the list of pre-season favorites to win the championship at the highest level of his sport. Not many 21 year olds (he’ll turn 21 at the end of November) can say that’s ever happened to them, in any sport.

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College Football Rankings 10-13

It’s an insanely inaccurate science, no question, and no logic pattern can be applied in every situation, so the rankings are unto themselves full of double standards and hypocrisy and thus vulnerable to never ending shredding from anyone who sees them. I’m forgiving of singular bad games, and I weigh what’s happened most recently more heavily, because I’m trying to determine who the best teams right now are. It’s for nothing but banter and fun, and because I’ve been doing it since I was 8 years old.

I’ve also decided doing them, this early in the season, every two weeks is better, to prevent knee jerk reactions. So, here are my complete rankings as of October 13.

*The App State vs UL Lafayette game is not taken into consideration*

1 Alabama 6-0
2 Ohio State 5-0
3 Michigan 6-0
4 Clemson 6-0
5 Washington 6-0
6 Louisville 4-1
7 Wisconsin 4-1
8 Texas A&M 6-0
9 Tennessee 5-1
10 Florida St 4-2
11 Miami 4-1
12 Ole Miss 3-2
13 Auburn 4-2
14 Nebraska 5-0
15 Houston 5-1
16 Baylor 5-0
17 Arkansas 4-2
18 LSU 3-2
19 Oklahoma 3-2
20 Virginia Tech 4-1
21 Florida 4-1
22 Troy 4-1
23 Western Michigan 6-0
24 West Virginia 4-0
25 Boise St 5-0
26 Utah 5-1
27 South Florida 5-1
28 Georgia 4-2
29 Memphis 4-1
30 USC 3-3
31 TCU 4-2
32 North Carolina 4-2
33 Navy 4-1
34 Toledo 4-1
35 Pitt 4-2
36 Penn State 4-2
37 Arizona St 5-1
38 NC St 4-1
39 BYU 3-3
40 Wake Forest 5-1
41 Colorado 4-2
42 Kansas State 3-2
43 Appalachian St 3-2
44 Washington St 3-2
45 Central Michigan 4-2
46 Indiana 3-2
47 Oklahoma St 4-2
48 Texas Tech 3-2
49 Tulsa 4-1
50 Stanford 3-2
51 UCLA 3-3
52 San Diego St 4-1
53 Cal 3-3
54 Iowa 4-2
55 Air Force 4-1
56 Louisiana Tech 3-3
57 Maryland 4-1
58 Minnesota 3-2
59 Northwestern 2-3
60 Duke 3-3
61 Texas 2-3
62 Michigan St 2-3
63 Georgia Tech 3-3
64 Middle Tennessee St 4-1
65 Oregon 2-4
66 Missouri 2-3
67 Arizona 2-4
68 Notre Dame 2-4
69 Southern Miss 4-2
70 Georgia Southern 3-2
71 Oregon St 2-3
72 Wyoming 4-2
73 UConn 3-3
74 South Carolina 2-4
75 UCF 3-2
76 South Alabama 3-2
77 Mississippi St 2-3
78 Kentucky 3-3
79 Akron 4-2
80 Army 3-2
81 Temple 3-3
82 Virginia 2-3
83 Vanderbilt 2-4
84 Cincinnati 3-3
85 Ohio 4-2
86 Colorado St 3-3
87 Western Kentucky 3-3
88 Iowa St 1-5
89 Purdue 3-2
90 Syracuse 2-4
91 Eastern Michigan 4-2
92 Old Dominion 4-2
93 East Carolina 2-4
94 Hawaii 3-3
95 Ball State 3-3
96 UTSA 2-3
97 Utah St 2-4
98 Tulane 3-2
99 Boston College 3-3
100 Nevada 3-3
101 Arkansas St 1-4
102 Illinois 1-4
103 Idaho 3-3
104 SMU 2-4
105 UL Lafayette 2-3
106 Northern Illinois 1-5
107 UNLV 2-4
108 Georgia St 1-4
109 UL Monroe 1-4
110 North Texas 3-3
111 Kent State 2-4
112 New Mexico St 2-3
113 New Mexico 2-3
114 Texas St 2-3
115 Kansas 1-4
116 Fresno St 1-5
117 Rutgers 2-4
118 Marshall 1-4
119 Bowling Green 1-5
120 UMass 1-5
121 Miami Ohio 0-6
122 Charlotte 2-4
123 FIU 2-4
124 Buffalo 1-4
125 UTEP 1-5
126 Florida Atlantic 1-5
127 San Jose St 1-5
128 Rice 0-5

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College Football Rankings 1-128 (9/26)

1 Alabama 4-0
2 Ohio State 3-0
3 Michigan 4-0
4 Clemson 4-0
5 Louisville 4-0
6 Stanford 3-0
7 Texas A&M 4-0
8 Houston 4-0
9 Florida St 3-1
10 Ole Miss 2-2
11 Wisconsin 4-0
12 Oklahoma 1-2
13 Washington 4-0
14 Arkansas 3-1
15 TCU 3-1
16 Baylor 4-0
17 Tennessee 4-0
18 Miami 3-0
19 Nebraska 4-0
20 UCLA 2-2
21 Troy 3-1
22 Auburn 2-2
23 LSU 2-2
24 West Virginia 3-0
25 Florida 3-1
26 Utah 4-0
27 Virginia Tech 3-1
28 Western Michigan 4-0
29 Michigan St 2-1
30 Georgia 3-1
31 Toledo 3-0
32 Arizona St 4-0
33 North Carolina 3-1
34 San Diego St 3-0
35 Cincinnati 3-1
36 Southern Miss 3-1
37 BYU 1-3
38 South Florida 3-1
39 USC 1-3
40 Kansas State 2-1
41 Colorado 3-1
42 Cal 2-2
43 Texas 2-1
44 Boise St 3-0
45 Oregon 2-2
46 Memphis 3-0
47 Iowa 3-1
48 Oklahoma St 2-2
49 Appalachian St 2-2
50 Pitt 2-2
51 Arizona 2-2
52 Texas Tech 2-1
53 Georgia Southern 3-1
54 Wake Forest 4-0
55 Penn State 2-2
56 Missouri 2-2
57 Minnesota 3-0
58 Navy 3-0
59 Georgia Tech 3-1
60 Washington St 1-2
61 Central Michigan 3-1
62 Indiana 2-1
63 Syracuse 2-2
64 Mississippi St 2-2
65 Kentucky 2-2
66 Oregon St 1-2
67 Tulsa 3-1
68 South Carolina 2-2
69 East Carolina 2-2
70 NC St 2-1
71 UConn 2-2
72 Vanderbilt 2-2
73 Akron 2-2
74 Western Kentucky 2-2
75 Maryland 3-0
76 Purdue 2-1
77 Northwestern 1-3
78 UCF 2-2
79 Duke 2-2
80 Notre Dame 1-3
81 Ball State 3-1
82 Army 3-1
83 Virginia 1-3
84 Air Force 3-0
85 Boston College 2-2
86 Middle Tennessee St 3-1
87 Marshall 1-2
88 Nevada 2-2
89 Louisiana Tech 1-3
90 Temple 2-2
91 Colorado St 2-2
92 Miami Ohio 0-4
93 Utah St 2-2
94 Tulane 2-2
95 UL Lafayette 2-2
96 South Alabama 2-2
97 Illinois 1-2
98 SMU 2-2
99 Fresno St 1-3
100 UTSA 1-3
101 Old Dominion 2-2
102 Florida Atlantic 1-3
103 Texas St 1-2
104 Ohio 2-2
105 Eastern Michigan 3-1
106 Arkansas St 0-4
107 Georgia St 0-3
108 Rutgers 2-2
109 UMass 1-3
110 Wyoming 2-2
111 Buffalo 1-2
112 Northern Illinois 0-4
113 UTEP 1-3
114 UL Monroe 1-2
115 Hawaii 1-3
116 New Mexico St 1-3
117 Iowa St 1-3
118 Idaho 2-2
119 New Mexico 1-2
120 North Texas 2-2
121 UNLV 1-3
122 Kansas 1-2
123 Bowling Green 1-3
124 Kent State 1-3
125 Rice 0-4
126 San Jose St 1-3
127 Charlotte 1-3
128 FIU 0-4

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Suicide, the Elephant in the Room

Seeing as it’s National Suicide Prevention week, and it’s still something that doesn’t garner enough conversation, I’d be remiss not point out a few things I’ve come to understand when it comes to suicide, and the contemplation of it, as well as dealing with those in such a situation. Now, if you’ve ever read anything I write, you know I can get a bit long winded, so, you’ve been warned.
1) Don’t be the, “they’re only doing it for attention” person. A) Taking that route might result in the biggest regret you ever have in life. And B) Because OF COURSE THEY’RE DOING IT FOR ATTENTION. They know something isn’t right, they’re absolutely crying out for attention because they know they need help, somewhere, with something, and they don’t know how to do it themselves. Don’t be that callous asshole who just says they’re only looking for attention and turns the other way.
2) When someone is contemplating suicide, or makes mention of possibly considering it, or no longer sees it as the worst option, do NOT go about telling them how selfish they are for that, and how big of a jerk they are, or what a coward they are for feeling that way. That will only reinforce the feelings they already have. Do you think they WANT to feel the way they do? Do you REALLY think it’s something they choose to feel? So don’t go prove them right about themselves by saying things like that. Focus on positive reinforcement, don’t hammer home the negatives.
3) Just remember, in just about every case of suicidal thoughts and attempts, the thought process includes honestly believing those they care about will be better off. In the mind of the person contemplating suicide, they’re doing something selfless. Is that fucked up? Of course it is. But hey, that’s what being depressed is, it’s being fucked up. And that kind of fuckedupdedness needs attention and needs help. So if you unfortunately are a survivor of someone who did commit suicide, know that when they did what they did, they were doing what they felt, in that moment, was the best thing they could do for those they loved and cared about. Thinking of them as selfish is wrong. Is it a selfish act? In black and white terms, yes, sure it is. But this isn’t a black and white issue. What a healthy mind sees as normal, or sees as selfish, or sees as any number of things, differs greatly from what the mind of someone suffering from depression sees. Be cognizant of that. The way someone suffering from depression rationalizes something versus the way someone who doesn’t is night and day.
4) Not everyone is going to say something when they feel these feelings and venture into the darkest of dark places. Some people will keep it to themselves and then all of a sudden out of nowhere they take their life. Except, it’s not out of nowhere. The signs are there. Pay attention to those you care about. When you notice significant changes in behavior, a propensity to listen to and watch sad things ALL the time, a cutting out of things they used to do for enjoyment, appetite changes, solidarity, etc…. don’t hesitate to speak up. Just talk to them. Engage them. But do so positively. Don’t tell them they’re being a debbie downer, or a loner, or simply that they need to stop drinking so much. This will only serve as that negative reinforcement. But be mindful of those you love and care about. Pay attention to the subtle things, because sometimes they’re really not so subtle.
5) This one I can’t stress enough. NEVER tell someone who is depressed to simply “get over it”. For someone who struggles with depression, yes, something as trivial to you as losing a book they had since they were a child, or even a sporting event, can trigger a trip down a dark place. There’s a difference in legit depression and being disappointed over something, but for those who are susceptible to depression, it doesn’t take much. And it also makes it easy to magnify the most trivial of things. If it happens to be something “bigger”, like losing a pet, the end of a relationship, losing a job, going to jail, etc…. “Just get over it”, or simply, “It will get better” isn’t going to work. Telling someone struggling with depression that only causes them to (again, their way of rationalizing things is different than someone not struggling with depression) fall further into their oblivion as they wonder and get angry over the fact that they can’t have that outlook. They would love to feel that confidence. But they don’t. And it creates an even more desolate and dire outlook.
Depression isn’t something you “get over”. It’s not something you ever have complete control of, even when you seemingly have control of it. It’s always there, lurking, waiting, and ready to pounce. It’s something you must always be mindful of, and always be wary of things that might trigger trips to dark places.
Michelob used to run an ad campaign that had the slogan, “Some days are better than others”. This couldn’t be more true for anyone struggling with depression, even those who have a very good handle on it. Some days just suck, and you don’t know why, you don’t have any explanation for it, but they just do. If you know someone who fights depression, understand this about them. Don’t give them shit for being in a “mood” that day.
Some days the sun is bright and the world is a wonderful place. Others, it takes everything inside that outwardly smiling and bubbling person to keep themselves from just hitting the eject button. And there may not have been anything in particular that even caused it, no specific event or trigger. It’s just another day in the life of fighting something that you never completely defeat.
Suicide is still a giant elephant in the room. It’s an uncomfortable topic for many. And I’m willing to bet part of why it’s so uncomfortable is because discussing it forces to people to look at themselves, and that can be scary.
Those who have survived suicide attempts, or those who fight depression on a daily basis can help shed light to prevent others from making the mistakes that they made. But they need to feel as though it’s something they can openly talk about without judgement from others, without being looked down upon, or treated as though they’re beneath others and some kind of weird emo freak.
For years I created a wonderfully entertaining story as to how I got my scars and why I have no stomach or esophagus. And then as I got to know you, and trust you, I would tell the truth.
Not anymore. You ask, I tell. Or, like in the case of a first date, I tell you I will tell you later. But I don’t fabricate an explanation anymore. I don’t take shame in it. I’ve learned so much from it, and know of multiple times my experience has both helped someone contemplating it, and also been of great comfort to those who have lost someone to suicide. It’s a part of who I am. It’s a battle I fight every day. But I don’t need to pretend I got drunk at a pool party and chugged the wrong bottle in the pool shed. I’m also fortunate that I surround myself with good people who surround themselves with good people, so there’s less fear of judgement and scorn.
There are many conversations we need to keep going in society, but this is one extremely important to me, because it’s an issue that in some way impacts so many more people than we as a society are willing to acknowledge.

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Summer Slumps Don’t Matter to Jimmie Johnson

Much has been made of the demise of Hendrick Motorsports and the slump they’re enduring and how the sky is falling over at NASCAR’s preeminent shop. Yawn. We’ve heard this before. In fact, for the most dominant team in NASCAR’s modern era, the sky falls practically every summer. And just like clockwork as the leaves change, amazingly so does Johnson’s fortune as the summer winds to a close.

When something happens often enough, it’s no longer due to chance, or luck. You just chalk it up to the way things are. And Jimmie Johnson struggling through the summer, seemingly making him seem vulnerable, only to recover once the playoffs start is a fall tradition that’s about as entrenched as Thanksgiving Day football at this point.

So let’s slow down wondering what’s wrong with Hendrick Motorsports. Talk to me after the chase if Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson don’t have their Lowe’s Chevy up front consistently over the final ten races of the season competing for wins and the title.

After all, we’ve seen this before. Just look

2004

Summer- From Indianapolis up until the final race of the regular season finished 36th or worse in 4 of six races. Three weeks in a row suffered a blown engine while averaging a 28.2 finish over the final six races of the regular season.

Chase- Slump continued to begin the chase by opening with an 11th and 10th, followed by two DNFs at Talladega and Kansas to seemingly end championship hopes. Proceeded to win four of the next five races and then finished 2nd at Homestead to narrowly miss out on winning the championship.

2005

Summer- After the series 14th race at Pocono Johnson held a 123 point lead over Greg Biffle in the standings. Johnson would go on to finish out of the top ten in eight of the next dozen races with an average finish of 19.4 and fell 316 points behind Tony Stewart.

Chase- Johnson won twice in the chase and entered Homestead just 52 points behind Tony Stewart in the race for the championship before an accident relegated him to a 40th place finish.

2006

Summer- Over the final five races of the regular season Johnson had an average finish of 14.8 with only one top ten finish.

Chase- After being wrecked by teammate Brian Vickers on the last lap while racing for the win at Talladega, Johnson found himself 8th in points after four races in the chase and 202 points out of the lead. Over the next five races his average finish was 1.8, with four runner-ups and a win en route to his first championship.

2007

Summer- From Dover during the first weekend of June thru the Brickyard 400 at the end of July, Johnson finished 15th or worse in six of the next eight races. Three of those finishes were 37th or worse and he found himself 9th in points, 607 in arrears of teammate Jeff Gordon after averaging a 23rd place finish during that stretch.

Chase- Johnson averaged a steady 7.8 average finish over the first five chase races. He then proceeded to win four races in a row to catapult him to his second straight title.

2008

Summer- For once, there was no summer slump to speak of. Struggles during May kept Johnson from commanding the standings, but he ended the regular season 3rd in points.

Chase- Eight finishes in the top 10, and no finishes worse than 15th coupled nicely with three victories as Johnson matched Cale Yarborough with his third straight championship.

2009

Summer- After twenty races and his victory at Indianapolis, Johnson sat second in points. However, over the final six races of the regular season, Johnson would only finish in the top ten once, managing only to have an average finish of 18.8.

Chase- Four wins and seven top five finishes were more than enough for Johnson to wrap up title number four.

2010

Summer- Back to back wins at Sonoma and Loudon had Johnson second in points, 105 behind Kevin Harvick after 17 races. His average finish over the next seven races though was a staggering 23.3 with just one top ten finish and five finishes out of the top twenty.

Chase- After a 25th place finish in the first race of the chase, Johnson used nine straight finishes inside the top ten to wrap up his fifth consecutive championship.

2011

Summer- There was no real slump for the 48 team over the summer of 2011, and many expected them to be a favorite for the title once the chase began.

Chase- An absolute disaster for Johnson, they finished out of the top ten in seven of the ten races and finished a then career worst 6th in points.

2012

Summer- There was a mini slump from Daytona thru Richmond as Johnson had five finishes out of the top ten over the final nine events of the regular season.

Chase- Five top five finishes among the first eight events of the chase had Johnson in the points lead with two laps to go, but an uncharacteristic collapse over the final two races saw finishes of 32nd and 36th derail their championship hopes.

2013

Summer- Over the final four races leading into the chase, Johnson had an average finish of 36th, and average finish of 27.5 over the final half dozen races in the regular season.

Chase- For the second time in his career, Johnson used nine top tens in the chase to walk away with the championship at the end of the year.

2014

Summer- After 17 races Johnson sat second in points, right on the heels of Jeff Gordon. But after averaging a 33rd place over their next five races, including three finishes of 39th or worse, Johnson had fallen to 7th in points.

Chase- Johnson steadily advanced out of the first round of NASCAR’s reformulated chase, but he failed to finish higher than 17th in any of the races in round two and was eliminated.

2015

Summer- After the season’s official halfway point Johnson found himself second in points. But from there to the conclusion of the regular season eight races later, Johnson only averaged a 14.4 average finish.

Chase- This time they couldn’t right the ship at all in the chase, as mechanical failure at Dover doomed them to first round elimination.

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Re-Evaluating Chances of Chase Contenders

nascar-cup-pocono-ii-2016-winner-chris-buescher-front-row-motorsports-ford-bob-osborne-cre

Buescher’s victory at Pocono may have completely changed the game in the quest for the 2016 chase.

Two weeks ago I looked at the drivers not yet locked into the chase field with a victory and gave my appraisal of their chances at the time to manage to make NASCAR’s sixteen team playoff field. The world of NASCAR is a strange place, because a lot has changed in those two weeks.

Dale Earnhardt Jr seems no closer to coming back from concussion related symptoms, so the chances of him pointing his way have disappeared. Chase Elliott’s tumble has continued to where it’s bordering on epic collapse, and Jamie McMurray’s bad decision at Indianapolis has left him vulnerable.

Oh yeah, then there’s Chris Buescher raining on everyone’s parade at Pocono and throwing a very unforeseen monkey wrench into things. Though, if you recall, two weeks ago I mentioned the possibility of a well timed rainstorm getting someone buried deep in the standings an upset victory and an invitation to the party.

While Buescher still has some work to do to get in the top 30, for the sake of prognostication purpose, we’ll assume he gets there, so more on him in a moment. Obviously, if Buescher does not make the top 30, then that changes things a great deal, but for his sake, I hope he does, and for the sake of discussion, we’ll assume so.

Austin Dillon +41 (65% two weeks ago at +41)

Dillon had a car that seemed capable of winning on Monday at Pocono and teammate Paul Menard was fast all weekend. That’s got to give the entire Richard Childress team some confidence. What also has to give them confidence is that Dillon is in the exact same place he was two weeks ago, and there now even fewer races in which to see his lead evaporate. Of some concern to Dillon might be that they finished 20th or worse at Sonoma, Bristol, and Richmond earlier this year, and a repeat of that performance would leave the team little room for error at Darlington and Michigan. At this point, it would probably take two bad races or another surprise winner to keep Dillon out of the chase, but as we’ve seen, anything is possible. The upcoming schedule is the only thing keeping Dillon from really being a slam dunk at this point.

80%

Ryan Newman +29 (50% two weeks ago at +50)

While the speed at RCR is promising for Newman, an average finish of 21.5 over the last two races is not. Newman should be in position to be on cruise control into the chase, but instead he’s left to sweat it out. It’s a bit difficult to put too much stock into his performance at Richmond because RCR as a whole is better, but it’s notable how much the entire team struggled at the track that will wrap up the regular season. If Newman gets to Richmond needing to fight his way in, you have to wonder how confident they’ll be. Then again, if you “need” to accomplish something like that, there are definitely worse drivers than Ryan Newman to have wheeling the racecar.

90%

Chase Elliott +25 (85% two weeks ago at +52)

Speaking of going the wrong direction… Elliott suddenly finds himself in real trouble, especially if someone outside of the top 16 wins a race in the next month *cough A.J. Allmendinger cough*. The problem isn’t the speed of the racecar, aside from Indy and Sonoma. The problem is finishing races. It seems pretty simple, based on the speed that’s been in the 24, just stay out of trouble and you’ll be fine. Elliott made a serious rookie mistake Monday that cost him big time. Instead of being 50 points to the good fresh of a top ten run getting some momentum back, the team heads to a road course with zero margin for error the rest of the way. Another bad finish and Elliott is likely to find himself on the outside looking in. And that’s regardless of whether someone behind him in points snares a victory. With a road course, Bristol, Darlington looming, finishing these next five races in one piece and on the lead lap is a daunting enough task. Putting together enough good finishes to hang on to his spot in the chase might be a bit much. If no more than one driver on the outside looking in steals a victory, Elliott would have like his chances if he can string together four top 15 finishes and a top 20. If he can post some top eight finishes like he was doing the first half of the year, he could be in a much more comfortable position when they arrive to Richmond. The pressure is on right now, and so far Elliott and the team aren’t handling it well. A bad weekend at Watkins Glen and the wheels might fall off.

50%

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Monday’s rookie mistake has Chase Elliott in the danger zone and his chase hopes getting closer to being on life support

Jamie McMurray +9 (55% two weeks ago at +27)

An average finish of 19.5 over the last two weeks compared to a 5.5 for his teammate Kyle Larson, and Jamie McMurray suddenly finds himself in major trouble as the regular season winds down. While Larson has five top ten finishes and three top fives in his last ten races, McMurray only has three non plate top ten finishes, and zero top fives at a non plate track all season. While consistency and staying out of trouble have him in contention for a chase birth, the inability to run up front and post strong finishes may very well keep him out. McMurray’s saving grace may wind up being the free falling Elliott who, despite out running McMurray on a weekly basis, has fallen back into McMurray’s clutches by not doing the one thing McMurray manages to do as well as anyone, finish the race. I don’t expect McMurray to hold off his teammate, and if Allmendinger wins this week, or someone else nabs an upset later on, I don’t think McMurray possesses the speed to race his way back in. His hope will be that Chase Elliott continues to struggle.

30%

Kyle Larson -9 (43% two weeks ago at -25)

Even facing a pretty sizable gap two weeks ago, I liked the chances for Larson based on the speed shown in his Target Chevy. Larson certainly has done anything to make me reconsider that confidence. While he’s currently on the outside looking in, and doesn’t need to see Allmendinger get a victory this weekend, few competing for a spot have to feel as confident as Larson and his team does right now. Not only that, Darlington and Bristol are both tracks that he himself could snatch a victory and lock himself into the chase by means of a win. On the flip side, because he’s doing the chasing, he can ill-afford a bad race, certainly in the next couple because he needs to keep the pressure on McMurray and Elliott. So the question will be, how hard does he push it to win a race, and where is the line where he takes what he can get and settles for the points?

70%

Kasey Kahne -29 (32% two weeks ago at -22)

On the positive side, Kahne opens this five race stretch at a road course, where he finished 9th at in Sonoma earlier this year, and he closes it out at Richmond, a place he’s won before and posted his best finish of the year at with a 4th place earlier this season. On a less positive note, Kahne is 29 points out, and stands 45 points behind Elliott, meaning a winner coming out of the top 16 could effectively doom his chances. Kahne has pulled his own rabbit out of a hat before, winning at Atlanta in 2014 in what was a must win situation, so if the situation calls for it, and Kahne is in contention, he’s shown he has what it takes to go and get it. The question will be if this team can find the speed to put him that situation. Nothing would seem to suggest that they can, and with the team sharing a shop with them struggling in their own right to salvage their chase spot, there may not be much teamwork between the two going forward. Kahne doesn’t have the speed to just catch McMurray, and McMurray doesn’t finish poorly enough for Kasey to feel confident he’ll fall back to him. And even if he did, there’s still the matter of Kyle Larson to deal with.

25%

Ryan Blaney -37 (40% two weeks ago at -16)

Perhaps no one has suffered as much in the past two weeks as Blaney. At Indianapolis Blaney was looking at a possible top ten finish, and certainly a top fifteen, before being taken out in a wreck that wasn’t his doing and relegated to a crushing 36th place finish. While they rebounded Monday with a solid 11th place, that’s not going to be good enough, and they know it. Based on McMurray’s average finish, Blaney is in a difficult spot of basically needing to finish inside the top ten in each of the next five races to be able to chase McMurray down, and that’s not even considering that he also finds himself 28 points behind Larson. In other words, Blaney needs the Ganassi cars to suffer problems over the next five races, and he can’t afford any himself. Or, he can go win a race, which isn’t out of the question. Blaney was very strong at Bristol in the spring and the Wood Brothers have a knack for that track. They might be circling that one as their hail mary shot to make the chase.

19%

Trevor Bayne -37 (20% two weeks ago at -14)

Let’s face it, Bayne was fortunate to be as close as he was at that point. Nobody that’s listed as contender runs worse than Bayne on a week to week basis and Bayne’s only real shot was for there to be no more surprise winners, and for those in front of him to continue to have trouble. There is nothing in the way this team has run anywhere besides the restrictor plates to make you think they’re going to suddenly start running in the top ten, much less contending for victories. While a lot can still happen over the next five races to those they’re chasing, let’s be real here, Bayne doesn’t run well enough to really even take advantage of that. Progress has been made at Roush, but not enough has been made with the 6 team.

.25%

Ricky Stenhouse -45 (3% two weeks ago at -41)

Stenhouse is further back with fewer races to go than he was two weeks ago. In other words, his chances were slim, and slim has headed for the door. Bristol is a track that’s been good to him in his career, and depending on what happens at the half mile, a top five run while misfortune striking those in front of him could at least put him in the mix over the final three races of the regular season. Or something really wild could happen and he could win at Thunder Valley. For Stenhouse, they need to get through Watkins Glen without losing any more points, and hope they can make some serious ground at Bristol. If not, their playoff dreams will be vanquished.

2%

From here down, getting in on points isn’t happening. Earnhardt is 56 points out and won’t race this week, so he’ll be even further behind, and let’s face it, at this point, a 56 point deficit with this many drivers to leap frog as well is too much to ask for. So it’s all about getting a win.

Dale Earnhardt Jr’s immediate future is cloudy, and really, perhaps his long term future is. The priority is getting Junior healthy, and this season may be one they’ve already decided to put on the shelf to get ready for 2017. If Junior does come back, Richmond is a place he’s been victorious before. And you know NASCAR loves a good story. He also has stopped long losing streaks at Michigan before as well, so if he waits until after Bristol to return, those are two tracks where a victory is still a possibility.

3.5%

A.J. Allmendinger circles two races each year and those are his chances to make the chase, and he knows it. He missed at Sonoma and now comes to Watkins Glen with one last swing at things. The unfortunate thing is that Allmendinger has run well enough and with enough speed that he should be in contention to get in on points. But it’s been a year from hell in terms of the luck and misfortune for Allmendinger and its lead to immense frustration at the racetrack. Nothing would erase all of that like a win this week at Watkins Glen. Not only would it propel Allmendinger into the chase, it would create a bigger mess and more pressure for a slew of others.

25%

Greg Biffle and his Roush car have been showing more and more speed each week. Enough to win? Doubtful. But don’t count him out at Darlington, a track he experienced great success at back in the mid 2000s, or at Michigan, where fuel mileage and strategy could certainly factor in. Is it likely? Of course not. But hey, neither was Chris Buescher winning.

2%

Others. Okay, I put this at like 0.5% two weeks ago, and low behold an “other” won. So maybe I’ll bump it up this time around. The great thing about NASCAR is that truly, anything can happen.

3.25%

As for Chris Buescher, he’s still six points out of the top 30, and it would be an awful shame to win a race and miss the chase because of that. Six points is barely over one position a race, something that can be done if he simply stays out of trouble. Also assisting him is the fact that he is able to concentrate on two tasks each race, beating Regan Smith and David Ragan, as no two other cars out there matter for this team until they get thru Richmond. Is he a slam dunk to do it? No, and if he doesn’t, it obviously greatly increases the chances for guys like Kahne or Blaney to get back into the chase.

75%

 

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