Monthly Archives: September 2017

2017 College Football Conference Predictions

Let me preface this by first stating this strictly takes into account the quality of team and does not factor in a couple of other key components that make a difference.

The schedule can make all the difference in the world. A team with 4th place talent in a division but who draws winnable home games, winnable road games against the other side, and doesn’t play the top teams from the other division can sneak in an win a division title above more talented teams.

Additionally, coaching is not heavily accounted for, nor are special teams, or the huge benefit of experience on the offensive line and at quarterback.

I might get around to taking a closer look at these things later. But for now, just based on the quality of teams, here are my conference predictions for 2017.

American Athletic

East

  1. South Florida
  2. Central Florida
  3. Temple
  4. Connecticutt
  5. Cincinnati
  6. East Carolina

West

  1. Memphis
  2. Houston
  3. Tulsa
  4. Navy
  5. SMU
  6. Tulane

This league could be incredibly competitive, as each division boasts three teams who could win it. In the end, the Bulls ability to play defense should prevail in getting them the conference title and a shot at being the Group of Five representative to a major bowl.

Atlantic Coast

Atlantic

  1. Florida State
  2. Clemson
  3. Louisville
  4. N.C. State
  5. Boston College
  6. Syracuse
  7. Wake Forest

Coastal

  1. Miami
  2. Virginia Tech
  3. Pittsburgh
  4. Georgia Tech
  5. North Carolina
  6. Duke
  7. Virginia

Florida State is the pick to beat Miami in the championship game, and while Miami is good, they aren’t on a level to compete with Florida State if the ‘Noles play their best. The competitive imbalance is extreme in the ACC, as even though I have Virginia Tech second in their division, they’re only about 6th best in the conference overall.

Big Ten

East

  1. Ohio State
  2. Penn State
  3. Michigan
  4. Indiana
  5. Maryland
  6. Michigan State
  7. Rutgers

West

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Northwestern
  3. Iowa
  4. Nebraska
  5. Minnesota
  6. Purdue
  7. Illinois

Another conference with horrible disparity between the two divisions. The top three teams in the conference all come from the East. Which is unfortunate for a team like Indiana. It should be noted that Iowa has added two graduate transfers over the summer, receiver Matt Quarrells (New Mexico) and running back James Butler (Nevada) to give a much needed boost to the offense. Keep an eye on them. But whoever wins the West is probably not beating whoever wins the East, which should be Ohio State.

Big 12

  1. Oklahoma
  2. TCU
  3. Texas
  4. Oklahoma State
  5. Kansas State
  6. West Virginia
  7. Baylor
  8. Iowa State
  9. Texas Tech
  10. Kansas

The national media seems so eager to just hand this conference title to Oklahoma, and I don’t think it’s nearly that easy. The difference between the best team and the 5th best team in this conference is closer than in any other conference besides Conference USA.

Conference USA

East

  1. Western Kentucky
  2. Middle Tennessee State
  3. Marshall
  4. Old Dominion
  5. Florida Atlantic
  6. Florida International
  7. Charlotte

West

  1. Louisiana Tech
  2. UT-San Antonio
  3. Southern Miss
  4. North Texas
  5. Rice
  6. UTEP
  7. UAB

While I think Louisiana Tech is the best team in the league, narrowly over Western Kentucky, I can make a case that the 2-5 all come from the East, and all could win that division. It’s not the sexiest league in the country, but there’s some good talent here, and should be plenty of exciting football.

MAC

East

  1. Ohio
  2. Miami
  3. Akron
  4. Bowling Green
  5. Buffalo
  6. Kent State

West

  1. Toldeo
  2. Western Michigan
  3. Eastern Michigan
  4. Northern Illinois
  5. Central Michgan
  6. Ball State

Toledo and Ohio are both pretty clear cut favorites, and the Rockets the odds on favorite to win the conference. To be quite honest, other than Miami’s reclamation last year and Terry Bowden trying to make Akron relevant, the league lacks for story lines. Eastern Michigan competing for the division title however would be a nice one to add to plot.

MWC

Mountain

  1. Colorado State
  2. Boise State
  3. Wyoming
  4. New Mexico
  5. Air Force
  6. Utah State

West

  1. San Diego State
  2. Hawaii
  3. Nevada
  4. UNLV
  5. Fresno State
  6. San Jose State

The top three teams in this league are all really good, and they go about it different ways. One (SDSU) rides their defense, another (CSU) the offense, and a third (BSU) is the more balanced of the three. Potential number one draft pick ,Wyoming quarterback, Josh Allen might just be good enough to add a fourth team to the mix. And Air Force never plays as bad as their talent looks at the season’s outset on paper. In the end, the fighting Mike Bobos give Colorado State a conference championship.

Pac 12

North

  1. Washington
  2. Stanford
  3. Oregon
  4. Washington State
  5. Cal
  6. Oregon State

South

  1. USC
  2. UCLA
  3. Colorado
  4. Utah
  5. Arizona State
  6. Arizona

Depth is not really something the Pac 12 appears to have a lot of. Washington and USC are overwhelming favorites to win their divisions and Stanford is the only team I think has any chance to wreck that part of the story. But in the race for the playoffs, a 1-loss USC or Washington needs a couple of those middle tier teams to elevate their game and make a national mark.

SEC

West

  1. Alabama
  2. Auburn
  3. LSU
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Arkansas
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Mississippi State

East

  1. Florida
  2. Georgia
  3. South Carolina
  4. Tennessee
  5. Missouri
  6. Kentucky
  7. Vanderbilt

Of the top nine teams in the league, only three come from the East. Yeah, it could be that bad. The west is deeper, but I don’t think even with more depth they have anyone that can beat Alabama for the division. Auburn will give them a run for it, but the gap is too wide. And I honestly don’t think LSU is a viable threat to the Tide right now, but, without Les Miles there, who knows?

Sun Belt

  1. Appalachian State
  2. Troy
  3. Arkansas State
  4. Louisiana
  5. South Alabama
  6. New Mexico State
  7. Idaho
  8. Georgia State
  9. Louisiana-Monroe
  10. Georgia Southern
  11. Texas State
  12. Coastal Carolina

Troy picked a bad year to be really good, because I think Appalachian State is just simply on another level. Arkansas State will be a contender once again because of an outstanding defense, but after that, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of upsetting the hierarchy at the top of the conference. Appalachian State is the favorite, no doubt, but if they slip up, there are two capable teams behind them.

 

 

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