Tag Archives: NASCAR

Dirtiest Moves in NASCAR

In light of Denny Hamlin pulling one of the dirtiest moves I can recall in my 30 years of watching NASCAR and hearing some people say, “that’s just racin'” I decided to compile a list of moves that compare similarly to what Denny pulled on Sunday night.

Wrecking the leader is not “racing”. Not when it’s intentional without any intent to actually try to race. Moving the leader? Wrecking him accidentally by driving too hard in an attempt to win? Those are acceptable. Frustrating for the driver and fans of the driver on the short end of that stick, but acceptable.

Flat out driving through someone, or hooking them after they go by you? That’s not racing. That’s, as Harry Hogge once called it, “low-down, shit-ass racin'”.

A mistake made while going for the win, which I still believe is what happened with Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr at Richmond, doesn’t put you on this list. Granted, I’m the only judge here and you’re welcome to disagree, but intent is a major factor here. If it looked like the driver had at least some intent, or even hope, of trying to make the pass without there being an accident, it doesn’t qualify. But if it looks like you made up your mind that the guy in front of you was going to wind up sideways off your bumper, then that’s not racing to me, and that qualifies your move as dirty. Cutting off a driver or coming down on a guy who has already stuck his nose under you, even if he probably shouldn’t have, also doesn’t count.

Some have tried to argue such tactics are common place, but going through race after race for roughly the past 1,000 races or so, finding a time where the leader was deliberately taken out in the final 25 miles or so of an event is difficult. It doesn’t happen often. At all. So I decided to point the times that I can recall it occurring over the past 30 years or so at the Cup level, listed in order of egregiousness.

In many of these you will see some blocking, and some contact perhaps even initiated by the ultimate victim. But as mentioned earlier, there’s a big difference in beating and banging, and bumping and trading paint than in just wrecking someone. Moving someone out of the way and taking a win away while costing them a few spots at most is one thing. Taking a guy from a potential win to a 25th place finish because you ruined his entire race is something entirely different. And that’s the key here, did the guy who previously possessed the lead still finish near the top of the leaderboard? If so, that moment doesn’t make this list. It’s the ones who had their entire race ruined by a dirty move that make it here.

So here we go, the dirtiest, most blatant occurrences of someone deliberately taking the leader out, usually in an effort to win for one’s self, though notably at the top of the list is an act of vengeance.

1- 2015 Matt Kenseth wrecks Joey Logano at Martinsville

2- 1986 Dale Earnhardt wrecks Darrell Waltrip at Richmond

3- 1989 Rusty Wallace wrecks Darrell Waltrip in The Winston

4- 1998 Rusty Wallace wrecks Jeff Gordon at Richmond

5- 2017 Denny Hamlin wrecks Chase Elliott at Martinsville

6- 1999 Dale Earnhardt wrecks Terry Labonte at Bristol

7- 2015 Joey Logano wrecks Matt Kenseth at Kansas

8- 2005 Brian Vickers wrecks Mike Bliss to win Nextel Open

9- 2006 Jeff Gordon wrecks Matt Kenseth at Chicago

 

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Kyle Busch Won, And It’s A Good Thing

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Kyle Busch finally snapped a year-long winning streak, and it’s a good thing for NASCAR.

 

Kyle Busch is off the schneid and now securely into NASCAR’s playoffs for the 2017 season. And with that, NASCAR can breathe a sigh of relief.

The world knows my disdain for Kyle Busch runs deep, very deep. It’s up there with Amazon and the New Orleans Saints, and given the right day, it surpasses them both. I tweeted something out Saturday following the truck race that I perhaps could have worded a little better, but I still stand by. I wish he were no longer in the Cup Series.

His accident in 2015 would humble most people, make them appreciative of where they are and what they have. Kyle Busch is not most people. He briefly flirted with being a changed person during his comeback in 2015, so much so to the point I started to buy in. Well, that didn’t last long. If that can’t humble him, nothing will. For all the talent he has, which arguably is the most among anyone in the garage area, and up there among the most anyone has ever possessed, his attitude towards everyone else and disrespectful arrogance makes me wish he weren’t here. I wish that his wife Samantha had told him then that she didn’t want him to back in a car, and he never did. But that’s me personally.

That said, I’m really glad he won on Sunday. Because at the end of the day, he still is here. And he’s still as good as anyone out there. While the odds of missing the playoffs were long, Kyle Busch was not yet locked into the 2017 playoffs. And it would be a travesty and a farce if Busch were left on the outside looking in.

Today he sits a mere 15 points behind Kyle Larson for second place in the season standings. Even had he finished a mere second place on Sunday, he would still only be 20 points out of second. It’s not unreasonable to think that with Larson’s recent stretch of bad luck and Busch’s stage winning ways that he could eventually move all the way to second in the standings by the end of the night in Richmond, and do so without winning a race.

And if he did that, there would still be a possibility he could miss the playoffs. Just play along for a second, suppose Clint Bowyer wins at Pocono and then A.J. Allmendinger goes and wins at Watkins Glen next week. That’s 14 drivers locked in with a win, leaving two spots open. Yes, at that point Busch would have been in possession of one, but there would still be four races left before the playoffs begin and winless drivers like Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, Jamie McMurray, Chase Elliott and Dale Earnhardt Jr out there, not to mention the ever improving rookies of Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez. Two of them winning among those final four races would certainly not be out of the question.

And if they did, then what? Kyle Busch, possibly second in the series points, possibly hundreds (he is currently 328 points ahead of Austin Dillon, the lowest ranked driver with a win set to make the playoffs) ahead of others who would be competing for a championship, would be running the final 10 races with no shot at the title.

Is that right? No.

I absolutely love the emphasis that’s been put on winning. I think it’s great. But I also think if you finish in the top 5 in points, that’s pretty great also. At some point, this is probably going to happen. We’re going to have 16 winners and one of them will not be someone who is a legitimate title contender and a strong car each and every week.

Kyle Busch wasn’t in a “slump”. A slump is when you don’t run very well every week. Kyle Busch was marred by a lot of bad luck. Yes, I like to call it karma, but I won’t call it a slump. Week in and week out, the 18 joins the 42 and the 78 as the fastest cars on the track. It would have been a major shame if Kyle Busch had been left out of the playoffs this year.

Thankfully, we don’t have to worry about that.

 

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The World is Mad at Danica Patrick and I Don’t Know Why (yes I do)

As you likely are aware of by now, Saturday night’s Monster Energy Cup Series race in Kansas was marred by a fiery crash that left driver Aric Almirola hospitalized overnight with a compression fracture in his back.

Oh yeah, Danica Patrick was also involved in the crash, though the vibe on social media suggests I shouldn’t bring that up or talk about it. Apparently it’s disrespectful to Almirola to discuss Danica’s awful luck/vicious collisions of late as well as her growing frustration. I suppose I should also avoid mentioning that Martin Truex Jr. won the event Saturday night. Oh, no, that’s ok to talk about, but Danica can’t be mentioned.

What happened to Almirola is awful and may very well combine with the points penalty incurred at Talladega be the final nail in the coffin to his playoff hopes. However, one can discuss other angles of this story and other storylines regarding this race without disrespecting Almirola. And if it were just about any other driver being focused on, hardly a gripe would be heard.

But it’s not just any other driver. It’s a woman. And while she is loved and adored by many, especially younger girls, she’s still very reviled by much of the traditional fan base. And the reason is simple; She’s a woman. Men hate her for being a woman in a “man’s sport” while women resent her for being both talented and attractive to boot. These are people with whom she’ll never win, and people waiting to pounce on anything they can find to criticize her and drag her through the mud.

Saturday night, in their mind, gave them such an opportunity.

Never mind that she was turned head on into a wall at 200 mph, just a week after having the same thing happen to her at Talladega. Or that she’s now a fifth year into what’s become a visibly frustrating foray into stock car racing. Forget that she was finally putting together a solid weekend and seemed poised to compete for a top ten finish. We’ll also gloss over the sponsorship fiasco where a company in over their head backed out of their contract just weeks before the season began. Forget all these things and let’s all be aghast and infuriated that these things came to a head in her interview and she had the audacity to speak on them upon exiting the infield care center on Saturday night.

Apparently she’s a selfish (insert multiple words typically designated to degrade women) because the focus of her interview was, gasp! her.

Did Joey Logano express great concern over Almirola after being interviewed following the same incident? Sure, but it’s apples and oranges.

Logano isn’t staring a career crossroads in the face, he doesn’t have sponsor and thus job security issues, he’s still having fun at the racetrack, and he hasn’t been subjected to nasty hits with the regularity Danica has. There’s also one other small difference; Even though by an uncontrollable freak accident, Logano is who caused both Danica and Almirola to endure such savage impacts. That matters.

I guess the NASCAR community wants to pretend Danica is the only person who has ever spent the duration of an interview discussing themselves and not spending enough time expressing concern for an injured driver.

In 1996 at Talladega when Bill Elliott broke his leg on the backstretch I’m positive the focus of driver interviews after the race was on expressing concern for his well-being. Oh, wait….

Well certainly in 1991 at Talladega when Kyle Petty suffered a broken leg in a multi-car crash the driver’s interviews were all about concern for Petty and weren’t focused heavily on criticizing the cause of the incident. No? Wait,  so fan favorites like Rusty Wallace and Mark Martin are self-centered a**####s?

Okay, so then certainly when Neil Bonnett suffered life threatening injuries at Darlington in 1990 the drivers expressed concern for him in their interviews and they too weren’t focused on criticizing the cause of the crash and weren’t lamenting their race being ruined, right? Well ok, then for sure when Bonnett’s own best friend won the race he mentioned something, right? Huh… I guess they should have kicked Dale Earnhardt out of NASCAR and he should’ve been ashamed of himself.

Danica comes from open wheel racing where she’s been privy to witness some brutal on track fatalities. Almirola put his window net down to indicate he was conscious and alert. So let’s stop pretending he was fighting for his life and she callously ignored it.

Secondly to that point, how much did Danica even know in regards to what was happening with him? Beyond seeing the net down, when she and Logano got into the ambulance who knows what she knew regarding the extent of his condition?

Was she possibly told in the infield care center? Possibly, but we don’t know specifically what she got told. But i think it’s safe to think that whatever information was given to her she was not led to think he was in any sort of grave danger.

Beyond that, even if told of his situation, how much do we know even resonated with her? She herself was visibly shaken by the incredible impact with which she hit the wall. As documented earlier, that’s not the first time she’s taken a nasty hit, and was the second time in less than a week.

She spoke specifically of her own concern that eventually one of these nasty wrecks is going to end badly for her. This was clearly weighing heavily on her, and has been for some time. She has friends and loved ones she cares about and has a fear of them being hurt by something bad happening to her. That’s not selfish of her.

And when something as rare and as freakish in nature like a brake rotor exploding on the car beside her at the fastest point on the racetrack occurs, its human nature to ask, “Why me?”. The chances of a rotor exploding at Kansas are rare enough, so for that perfect storm of events to come together like that, it’s perfectly understandable for her to start wondering if someone is trying to tell her something.

This alone more than provides adequate explanation and justification for her demeanor after the race. When you factor in the frustrations from the performance issues and questions of how much longer she wants to do this, or can do this, you’ve got to sit on a pretty high horse to be so judgemental of her for how she handled that interview.

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No Shine Off Chase Elliott’s Rookie Season

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Chase Elliott leads the field past us at Talladega

Chase Elliott isn’t going to win the championship this year, and that’s a bummer. But the mere fact that there’s such a level of disappointment over having to accept that speaks to the massive increase in expectations.

That veteran championship contenders, Denny Hamlin in particular, made it a point not to aide the 20 year old rookie at Talladega because they legitimately worried about him winning the whole thing if he advanced speaks to the expectations even his competition has for him.
Chase Elliott didn’t fail to win the title this year because he’s not good enough, or because he’s in over his head, or because he’s still a couple of years away from being a contender. No, Chase Elliott isn’t continuing his championship fight simply due to rotten racing luck.

In reality, the same can be said of Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski as well. The second round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup was not kind to three of arguably the top five contenders for the championship. Outside of Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick, the trio of Elliott, Truex and Keselowski were the class of the field over the duration of the chase as it pertained to raw speed. An argument could be made that in terms of speed and running up front consistently nobody was better than Chase Elliott through the first six races of the chase.

But running up front alone isn’t enough. Victimized at Charlotte by Martin Truex causing a massive crash on a day Elliott had established himself as one of the two fastest cars to derail his quest for a championship, his hopes went on life support when at Kansas a week later rotten racing luck bit after Elliott had established himself again as arguably the best car there.

Yet, in a do or die must win situation there he was at Talladega, up front and establishing himself yet again as one of the two best cars there. He went toe to toe with Keselowski, passing the dominate Ford on multiple occasions and proving to be his biggest threat.


But the racing gods decided it wasn’t to be for either contender. Keselowski detonated an engine and Elliott lost track position that without the required help needed at Talladega he just couldn’t get back.

But no one can say it was for a lack of trying. The rookie tried everything he could, making moves that left me closing my eyes from my spot in the grandstands from worry it was going to turn ugly. But there he was fighting every step of the way, and going down swinging.

Another testament to the respect he’s earned in the garage was the commitment shown to him by six time champion and teammate Jimmie Johnson. Already locked into the next round, Johnson pledged to commit to doing everything he could to help Elliott advance.

And boy did he ever. There were times you could almost see Johnson say, “I can’t believe we’re doing this here, but OK, I’m coming”, as he followed Elliott everywhere he could. Teammates or not, that’s a level of commitment reserved for people who your utmost respect. And for a 20 year old rookie to have such respect from one of the greatest drivers of all-time says something.

While the championship is off the table, plenty remains to be accomplished in 2016 over the final four races.

For starters, there’s the matter of getting that first win that they’ve been banging on the door of like a police officer.  There isn’t a person in the garage area that would be surprised if Elliott won not just one, but even perhaps two, of the final four races. Beyond that, they can still finish in the top ten in points.

The simple fact of the matter is that if Elliott’s future were any brighter we’d be advised to not stare directly into it.

When the 2017 season starts back up next February Elliott will be on the list of pre-season favorites to win the championship at the highest level of his sport. Not many 21 year olds (he’ll turn 21 at the end of November) can say that’s ever happened to them, in any sport.

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Re-Evaluating Chances of Chase Contenders

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Buescher’s victory at Pocono may have completely changed the game in the quest for the 2016 chase.

Two weeks ago I looked at the drivers not yet locked into the chase field with a victory and gave my appraisal of their chances at the time to manage to make NASCAR’s sixteen team playoff field. The world of NASCAR is a strange place, because a lot has changed in those two weeks.

Dale Earnhardt Jr seems no closer to coming back from concussion related symptoms, so the chances of him pointing his way have disappeared. Chase Elliott’s tumble has continued to where it’s bordering on epic collapse, and Jamie McMurray’s bad decision at Indianapolis has left him vulnerable.

Oh yeah, then there’s Chris Buescher raining on everyone’s parade at Pocono and throwing a very unforeseen monkey wrench into things. Though, if you recall, two weeks ago I mentioned the possibility of a well timed rainstorm getting someone buried deep in the standings an upset victory and an invitation to the party.

While Buescher still has some work to do to get in the top 30, for the sake of prognostication purpose, we’ll assume he gets there, so more on him in a moment. Obviously, if Buescher does not make the top 30, then that changes things a great deal, but for his sake, I hope he does, and for the sake of discussion, we’ll assume so.

Austin Dillon +41 (65% two weeks ago at +41)

Dillon had a car that seemed capable of winning on Monday at Pocono and teammate Paul Menard was fast all weekend. That’s got to give the entire Richard Childress team some confidence. What also has to give them confidence is that Dillon is in the exact same place he was two weeks ago, and there now even fewer races in which to see his lead evaporate. Of some concern to Dillon might be that they finished 20th or worse at Sonoma, Bristol, and Richmond earlier this year, and a repeat of that performance would leave the team little room for error at Darlington and Michigan. At this point, it would probably take two bad races or another surprise winner to keep Dillon out of the chase, but as we’ve seen, anything is possible. The upcoming schedule is the only thing keeping Dillon from really being a slam dunk at this point.

80%

Ryan Newman +29 (50% two weeks ago at +50)

While the speed at RCR is promising for Newman, an average finish of 21.5 over the last two races is not. Newman should be in position to be on cruise control into the chase, but instead he’s left to sweat it out. It’s a bit difficult to put too much stock into his performance at Richmond because RCR as a whole is better, but it’s notable how much the entire team struggled at the track that will wrap up the regular season. If Newman gets to Richmond needing to fight his way in, you have to wonder how confident they’ll be. Then again, if you “need” to accomplish something like that, there are definitely worse drivers than Ryan Newman to have wheeling the racecar.

90%

Chase Elliott +25 (85% two weeks ago at +52)

Speaking of going the wrong direction… Elliott suddenly finds himself in real trouble, especially if someone outside of the top 16 wins a race in the next month *cough A.J. Allmendinger cough*. The problem isn’t the speed of the racecar, aside from Indy and Sonoma. The problem is finishing races. It seems pretty simple, based on the speed that’s been in the 24, just stay out of trouble and you’ll be fine. Elliott made a serious rookie mistake Monday that cost him big time. Instead of being 50 points to the good fresh of a top ten run getting some momentum back, the team heads to a road course with zero margin for error the rest of the way. Another bad finish and Elliott is likely to find himself on the outside looking in. And that’s regardless of whether someone behind him in points snares a victory. With a road course, Bristol, Darlington looming, finishing these next five races in one piece and on the lead lap is a daunting enough task. Putting together enough good finishes to hang on to his spot in the chase might be a bit much. If no more than one driver on the outside looking in steals a victory, Elliott would have like his chances if he can string together four top 15 finishes and a top 20. If he can post some top eight finishes like he was doing the first half of the year, he could be in a much more comfortable position when they arrive to Richmond. The pressure is on right now, and so far Elliott and the team aren’t handling it well. A bad weekend at Watkins Glen and the wheels might fall off.

50%

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Monday’s rookie mistake has Chase Elliott in the danger zone and his chase hopes getting closer to being on life support

Jamie McMurray +9 (55% two weeks ago at +27)

An average finish of 19.5 over the last two weeks compared to a 5.5 for his teammate Kyle Larson, and Jamie McMurray suddenly finds himself in major trouble as the regular season winds down. While Larson has five top ten finishes and three top fives in his last ten races, McMurray only has three non plate top ten finishes, and zero top fives at a non plate track all season. While consistency and staying out of trouble have him in contention for a chase birth, the inability to run up front and post strong finishes may very well keep him out. McMurray’s saving grace may wind up being the free falling Elliott who, despite out running McMurray on a weekly basis, has fallen back into McMurray’s clutches by not doing the one thing McMurray manages to do as well as anyone, finish the race. I don’t expect McMurray to hold off his teammate, and if Allmendinger wins this week, or someone else nabs an upset later on, I don’t think McMurray possesses the speed to race his way back in. His hope will be that Chase Elliott continues to struggle.

30%

Kyle Larson -9 (43% two weeks ago at -25)

Even facing a pretty sizable gap two weeks ago, I liked the chances for Larson based on the speed shown in his Target Chevy. Larson certainly has done anything to make me reconsider that confidence. While he’s currently on the outside looking in, and doesn’t need to see Allmendinger get a victory this weekend, few competing for a spot have to feel as confident as Larson and his team does right now. Not only that, Darlington and Bristol are both tracks that he himself could snatch a victory and lock himself into the chase by means of a win. On the flip side, because he’s doing the chasing, he can ill-afford a bad race, certainly in the next couple because he needs to keep the pressure on McMurray and Elliott. So the question will be, how hard does he push it to win a race, and where is the line where he takes what he can get and settles for the points?

70%

Kasey Kahne -29 (32% two weeks ago at -22)

On the positive side, Kahne opens this five race stretch at a road course, where he finished 9th at in Sonoma earlier this year, and he closes it out at Richmond, a place he’s won before and posted his best finish of the year at with a 4th place earlier this season. On a less positive note, Kahne is 29 points out, and stands 45 points behind Elliott, meaning a winner coming out of the top 16 could effectively doom his chances. Kahne has pulled his own rabbit out of a hat before, winning at Atlanta in 2014 in what was a must win situation, so if the situation calls for it, and Kahne is in contention, he’s shown he has what it takes to go and get it. The question will be if this team can find the speed to put him that situation. Nothing would seem to suggest that they can, and with the team sharing a shop with them struggling in their own right to salvage their chase spot, there may not be much teamwork between the two going forward. Kahne doesn’t have the speed to just catch McMurray, and McMurray doesn’t finish poorly enough for Kasey to feel confident he’ll fall back to him. And even if he did, there’s still the matter of Kyle Larson to deal with.

25%

Ryan Blaney -37 (40% two weeks ago at -16)

Perhaps no one has suffered as much in the past two weeks as Blaney. At Indianapolis Blaney was looking at a possible top ten finish, and certainly a top fifteen, before being taken out in a wreck that wasn’t his doing and relegated to a crushing 36th place finish. While they rebounded Monday with a solid 11th place, that’s not going to be good enough, and they know it. Based on McMurray’s average finish, Blaney is in a difficult spot of basically needing to finish inside the top ten in each of the next five races to be able to chase McMurray down, and that’s not even considering that he also finds himself 28 points behind Larson. In other words, Blaney needs the Ganassi cars to suffer problems over the next five races, and he can’t afford any himself. Or, he can go win a race, which isn’t out of the question. Blaney was very strong at Bristol in the spring and the Wood Brothers have a knack for that track. They might be circling that one as their hail mary shot to make the chase.

19%

Trevor Bayne -37 (20% two weeks ago at -14)

Let’s face it, Bayne was fortunate to be as close as he was at that point. Nobody that’s listed as contender runs worse than Bayne on a week to week basis and Bayne’s only real shot was for there to be no more surprise winners, and for those in front of him to continue to have trouble. There is nothing in the way this team has run anywhere besides the restrictor plates to make you think they’re going to suddenly start running in the top ten, much less contending for victories. While a lot can still happen over the next five races to those they’re chasing, let’s be real here, Bayne doesn’t run well enough to really even take advantage of that. Progress has been made at Roush, but not enough has been made with the 6 team.

.25%

Ricky Stenhouse -45 (3% two weeks ago at -41)

Stenhouse is further back with fewer races to go than he was two weeks ago. In other words, his chances were slim, and slim has headed for the door. Bristol is a track that’s been good to him in his career, and depending on what happens at the half mile, a top five run while misfortune striking those in front of him could at least put him in the mix over the final three races of the regular season. Or something really wild could happen and he could win at Thunder Valley. For Stenhouse, they need to get through Watkins Glen without losing any more points, and hope they can make some serious ground at Bristol. If not, their playoff dreams will be vanquished.

2%

From here down, getting in on points isn’t happening. Earnhardt is 56 points out and won’t race this week, so he’ll be even further behind, and let’s face it, at this point, a 56 point deficit with this many drivers to leap frog as well is too much to ask for. So it’s all about getting a win.

Dale Earnhardt Jr’s immediate future is cloudy, and really, perhaps his long term future is. The priority is getting Junior healthy, and this season may be one they’ve already decided to put on the shelf to get ready for 2017. If Junior does come back, Richmond is a place he’s been victorious before. And you know NASCAR loves a good story. He also has stopped long losing streaks at Michigan before as well, so if he waits until after Bristol to return, those are two tracks where a victory is still a possibility.

3.5%

A.J. Allmendinger circles two races each year and those are his chances to make the chase, and he knows it. He missed at Sonoma and now comes to Watkins Glen with one last swing at things. The unfortunate thing is that Allmendinger has run well enough and with enough speed that he should be in contention to get in on points. But it’s been a year from hell in terms of the luck and misfortune for Allmendinger and its lead to immense frustration at the racetrack. Nothing would erase all of that like a win this week at Watkins Glen. Not only would it propel Allmendinger into the chase, it would create a bigger mess and more pressure for a slew of others.

25%

Greg Biffle and his Roush car have been showing more and more speed each week. Enough to win? Doubtful. But don’t count him out at Darlington, a track he experienced great success at back in the mid 2000s, or at Michigan, where fuel mileage and strategy could certainly factor in. Is it likely? Of course not. But hey, neither was Chris Buescher winning.

2%

Others. Okay, I put this at like 0.5% two weeks ago, and low behold an “other” won. So maybe I’ll bump it up this time around. The great thing about NASCAR is that truly, anything can happen.

3.25%

As for Chris Buescher, he’s still six points out of the top 30, and it would be an awful shame to win a race and miss the chase because of that. Six points is barely over one position a race, something that can be done if he simply stays out of trouble. Also assisting him is the fact that he is able to concentrate on two tasks each race, beating Regan Smith and David Ragan, as no two other cars out there matter for this team until they get thru Richmond. Is he a slam dunk to do it? No, and if he doesn’t, it obviously greatly increases the chances for guys like Kahne or Blaney to get back into the chase.

75%

 

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Handicapping the Race to the Chase

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The 2016 race to the chase will be altered greatly depending on when Dale Earnhardt Jr. returns to the track.

So it’s time to get down to it for the Sprint Cup Series in the race for the Chase. With only seven races remaining, we’ve essentially reached the stretch run and the wildcard race is on. And thanks to some massive storylines regarding the Hendrick Motorsports cars of Chase Elliott and Dale Earnhardt Jr, the race for the Chase has some perhaps unexpected spice.

Elliott’s tumble in the standings thanks to four bad finishes in a row (though three of them were not of his making) and Earnhardt’s absence from at least one, and possibly more, races has injected some drama into the chase run and welcomed some new players to the party that otherwise might not be there.

As of New Hampshire, and the 19th race run, there are 11 drivers who have scored victories, leaving five spots up for grabs. Obviously, the easiest way to wrap up one of those spots will be to win a race, but here we are over halfway through the season and to this point only Elliott, Earnhardt and Larson have shown to have the ability to pull that off.

But that’s the thing with Sprint Cup racing, you never know who might steal one. So while I’m going to focus on those who can still have at least a puncher’s chance of pointing their way in, drivers like Paul Menard, Danica Patrick or Aric Almirola could still steal a victory through fuel mileage or perhaps even a well timed rainstorm. So they aren’t completely out of the picture, but let’s face it, the odds are very much against them.

So as we head to the final six races of Indianapolis, Pocono, Watkins Glen, Bristol, Michigan, Darlington and Richmond, how do we handicap the race for these final five spots? Which of these contenders is most likely to get a victory and put the points talk to bed, which will need to rely on points, and who can spoil the party with a victory somewhere and leap frog the competition?

Chase Elliott +52 – Elliott looked like a lock a month ago, but despite having top ten runs going at Daytona, Kentucky, and Loudon, Elliott hasn’t finished better than 31st over the past three races.

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This accident between rookies Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott at Kentucky while the two were both in the top ten had major chase implications.

The good news is he still is over a full race and then some to the good, and they return to Pocono and Michigan where Elliott led laps and contended for a win, as well as Bristol, another place he contended for a victory. The bad news is that should someone off the chase grid win, theoretically that lead would dwindle about a third of the way down. However, the Dale Earnhardt Jr. situation could very well offset that somewhat. Additional bad news comes in the fact that Richmond and Sears Point were two of the most uncompetitive races Elliott has run in the first half, and with a return trip to Richmond being the finale before the chase and another road course looming, there’s cause for concern. While historically drivers who run well at Michigan and especially Pocono typically do well at Indy, Elliott’s Xfinity Series history suggests it’s not a track he’s incredibly comfortable with. Throw in Darlington which is, well, despite his victory in his first Xfinity Series start back in 2014, no small task for rookies, and the potential landmines are everywhere. Elliott’s bad luck at some point you think will end and the team will get back to finishing where they run. But with potential pitfalls ahead, they’ve lost their margin for error and must capitalize on the tracks that are their strengths. Should they run into misfortune at Pocono, Bristol, or Michigan, the pressure will really mount at Darlington and Richmond. The best thing Elliott can do is get the pressure off with a win over the next month, which of all the drivers without a win, he’s the one most likely to score one.

Chances of making the chase- 85%

Ryan Newman +50 – While Chase Elliott has led laps and contended for wins, he’s only two points ahead of Ryan Newman for highest in points without a win. And the reason for that is Newman only has one finish outside of the top 30, while Elliott has five. Newman is doing what Newman always does. He rides around in mediocre equipment, running mid pack, and then survives the carnage of late race restarts (or causes some) to wind up finishing around the top 15. Over the last 15 races Newman only has one finish of worse than 18th and has 10 finishes inside the top 15. It’s a formula that has worked for Newman in the past, and is on track to work this year. While there is little reason to think Newman is going to win a race (just a single lap led and one top five finish to date), there’s arguably even less to think he’s not going to make the chase. The key at this point as much as anything is avoid really bad finishes, and that’s the M.O. of this Luke Lambert led 31 team.

Chances of making the chase- 90%

Austin Dillon +41 – Newman’s teammate at Richard Childress Racing is in a slightly less comfortable boat than Newman, as Dillon, while comfortably in as of now, is one bad race away from fighting for his chase life, or, he’s one win away from a guy like A.J. Allmendinger (more on that later) from having to sweat it all the way to Richmond to secure his place in NASCAR’s chase. Dillon has been less consistent than Newman, posting more strong runs where he looked like a potential contender while also having a few more finishes out of the top 20. At times, especially early in the year, it looked like Dillon was knocking on the door of getting that first win and securing his spot in the chase. However, he hasn’t qualified better than 8th at a non plate track since his pole at California and he has only led four laps all season. It’s difficult to look at that and think he’s going to have a shot to win a race in the next seven, which can make for some high pressure, especially if they have a bad race in the next couple of weeks. Dillon, like Elliott, struggled at Sears Point, so you have to wonder if they’re already peeking ahead at Watkins Glen with a little bit of dread. On the other hand, they do go to Michigan, and at California and Michigan earlier this year they’ve shown some decent speed. They might need to circle their trip to the Irish Hills as one to try to create a buffer before the back to back night races to end the regular season. Dillon only has four top ten finishes in his last dozen starts, and two of those came on the plate tracks. Dillon may wind up one driver who benefits greatly from Earnhardt’s misfortune as Dillon may need that buffer in case a guy like Allmendinger or Kyle Larson grab a win over the next two months.

Chances of making the chase – 65%

Jamie McMurray +27 – Jamie McMurray’s average finish the last three years has been 16.5, 16.2 and 14.9. Thus far in 2016 it’s 16.1. In other words, Jamie McMurray is being Jamie McMurray. He hasn’t led a lap all year and the only top five finish he has came at Talladega. The speed to contend for wins simply hasn’t been there, which is par for the course. But McMurray is a heady veteran who gets his equipment home and finds a way to salvage something decent most race weekends. A couple of positive things pointing his direction are the fact that the team seems to be trending upwards as of late with three top five finishes in the last five races, and one of those that was not was at Daytona where he was involved in an accident while contending for a solid finish, and maybe more. This couldn’t come at a better time as McMurray will return to Indianapolis where he has been victorious before. With Earnhardt likely to sit out at Indy, McMurray looks at the situation like his lead is 29 points over Ryan Blaney, with Kasey Kahne and Kyle Larson, along with Earnhardt, still nipping at his heels. McMurray is in a good spot, and if he just soldiers along the next seven races, he should make the chase. However, seven straight races without a bad finish under the spotlight and pressure of racing for the chase is a tall order, even for the most accomplished of teams. McMurray’s nightmare would be for Allmendinger to win at Watkins Glen and then someone like Earnhardt, Larson or Kahne to win one of the other six races. Would McMurray be able to chase down the RCR duo and rookie phenom ahead of him? Have they shown the speed to be able to make up points? I’m not so sure. And even if they avoid trouble, they are just a couple of top five runs from Larson or Kahne away from having those two breathing down McMurray’s neck coming down the stretch. It’s going to be serious nail biting time for the Missouri native as we head towards Richmond, and much of his chase future may depend more on what those around him are or are not able to get done over the next two months.

Chances of making the chase – 55%

Dale Earnhardt Jr +14 – There is no murkier chase future than that of the sport’s most popular driver, and perhaps some clarity will come this week when we find out for sure if he’s going to miss Indianapolis, and also perhaps how much more time he will be out of the 88 car, if any. If Earnhardt is a go for Indianapolis, then you probably have to feel good about their chances. While they have been anything but a picture of consistency, one can point to the plate tracks as the reason they are in chase peril in the first place. Three races where top fives were expected and instead Earnhardt only accumulated 27 points, opposed to the 138 he gained in those three events last year. That’s a massive difference, such a difference that were he to have even gained 100 points in plate races this year, Earnhardt would be sitting 8th in points and firmly entrenched in the field of 16. As it is, he may have to sweat it out. The good news is that Pocono and Bristol are left in the regular season and Earnhardt finished 2nd at each earlier this season. Finishes like that can make up a lot of points in a hurry against the group of drivers he’s competing for a chase spot with. So even if he does not race at Indy, which I don’t believe he will, if he’s able to get back in the car at Pocono, you still have to feel pretty good about his chances. He has shown the speed on more than a couple of occasions, especially early in the year, to be considered a contender to win, though aside from Pocono, he really hasn’t shown much of it since early spring. Until we know what his status is going forward, it’s very difficult to handicap his chances. For the sake of argument we will assume he’s back after Indianapolis, because if he isn’t and misses two races, including a Pocono track that might be his best chance for a win and massive points accumulation, then that will probably be all she wrote.

Chances of making the chase (if he only misses one more race) – 40%

Trevor Bayne -14 – Trevor Bayne hasn’t finished worse than 28th all season, and only twice has he finished worse than 25th. Should Bayne finish 25th this weekend and Earnhardt not compete, Bayne would surpass Earnhardt in the standings and into the chase grid, depending of course on what those immediately behind him do this weekend. This is where things get interesting. The gap between Bayne and A.J. Allmendinger (with Ryan Blaney, Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson and Ricky Stenhouse all in between) is only 29 points, which is barely above four positions a race. More importantly though, for a collection of drivers with average finishes in the 15-18 range, any one finish in the top five can make up a large chunk of ground in a hurry, meaning if one of these teams can just hit the right combination once, especially twice, over the next seven races, it could be the difference in being a chase participant, and being a chase observer. For Bayne, he has to be looking towards Bristol to try to create some separation, where he finished 5th in the spring after qualifying 10th. The problem for a guy like Bayne, or any of these is that if another member of this group wins a race and locks themself in, or worse, two of them do so, do they have enough speed and ability to string together enough top five type runs to make up the ground they trail McMurray and Dillon by? It doesn’t seem particularly likely, so much of their chase hopes rest on either being the one to steal a win, or having no one in this group accomplish the feat. While 2016 has been a vast improvement for Roush, one has to wonder about the pressure of the chase race, something Bayne and his team have not dealt with in the past, and how that will impact them coming down the stretch. The good news is inexperience in this situation is high among a couple of their competitors. But you have to think there might be a big edge for Kasey Kahne in this regard, and a slight one for Allmendinger and Larson as well. It’s major strides for the program and Bayne that they are even in this conversation. Are they going to be able to nail down a playoff spot? My gut says likely not, but, if they keep riding around staying out of trouble knocking off top 25s, they won’t eliminate themselves, and will leave themselves a chance heading to Darlington and Richmond.

Chances of making the chase – 20%

Ryan Blaney -16 – No one on this list besides Chase Elliott has shown the consistent speed that Ryan Blaney is, and that makes him a really interesting wildcard in all of this. As of today, he would miss the chase. But if the Brickyard 400 starts and Dale Earnhardt isn’t in it, Blaney essentially finds himself two points out of the final chase spot, and with the speed to threaten to catch guys like McMurray and Dillon. The key for Blaney will be to quit making the costly mistakes this team and driver have made that have resulted in finishes that don’t represent the way they team ran. Blaney’s recovery for an 11th place last week might be looked at as a season saver if this team goes on to make the chase. Despite as well as they have run, and the speed in the car, they’ve only finished better than 10th on four occasions this year, but the potential is there, and everyone knows it. Bristol in particular was an example of bad fortune as getting caught in the wrong restart line relegated him to a finish outside of the top ten, despite a car that some thought might have a shot to win. With finishes outside of the top 15 in over half the races run thus far this year, the 21 team knows it needs to tighten up over the next seven races. Having not run a full season in years, even being basically a Penske organization now, you wonder if that inexperience might have been a bit of the culprit in their inconsistencies and you wonder if it will rear its ugly head over the next two months. What we do know is the Penske cars have speed, and Blaney has had it too, even if on pit road a bit too often. If Earnhardt can’t go on Sunday, Blaney finds himself in a good spot. If he can finish the deal a couple of times down the stretch and knock out three or four top tens with a couple of top fives, he should be able to join fellow rookie Chase Elliott in the chase, and should be able to get in even if a couple of the guys behind him grab a win. If he can’t, and execution continues to be a problem, then he’s going to have to hope nobody pulls an upset and steals a victory, and he might need a little help from his competitors struggling to get in the field of 16.

Chances of making the chase – 40%

Kasey Kahne -22 – No one, besides possibly Chase Elliott following the giant cushion he once had, has near the pressure on them that Kasey Kahne does as we enter the stretch run. Kahne was in position for a solid points day at Loudon until Ryan Newman’s impatience turned a top 12 finish into a 25th place. That finish is the difference in being knocking on the door and the next in line after Earnhardt, to being on the outside looking in. Also hurting Kahne is a 15 point penalty assessed for failed post race inspection. It will be interesting to see how he feels about this should Matt Kenseth suffer no consequences for failing after winning this past weekend. Granted, Kahne is only 8 points behind Trevor Bayne, and 22 behind Earnhardt. So if he can finish 17th or better at Indianapolis, he should at least jump ahead of Earnhardt. Kahne has been awfully similar to Bayne in that, aside from a couple of plate finishes, he’s avoid finishes in the 30s. The problem is, he’s also avoided finishes in the top half dozen as well. With just eight top five showings over the past 92 races, speculation over Kahne’s future with Hendrick Motorsports has gone from whispers to conversation, and missing the chase would put the driver in a very precarious situation going into 2017, which would be a contract year, should he even make it that far. Kahne needs to figure it out, and fast. Fortunately for him, he’s won at four of the seven tracks left in the regular season, and has a road course victory to his credit. Indianapolis has been a place that Kahne has run well at in the past, and his team needs a boost and some momentum. If they can run like many think they still are capable of this Sunday, they can firmly reinsert themselves into the race for a chase spot. The problem is that success Kahne should be able to fall back on seems so long ago. There are two things they have going in their favor that give them a definitive advantage over their direct competition. One, they’re still a Hendrick Motorsports team, and two, they have a huge edge in experience. In 2014 Kahne went to Atlanta in a must win situation and delivered a clutch win to advance into the chase. It may take something like that again this time around, and despite their struggles, there is too much talent and potential with this team to dismiss it as not possible.

Chances of making the chase – 32%

Kyle Larson -25 – Larson is another very interesting wildcard, and difficult to gauge, while also being one who benefits greatly from Earnhardt’s absence. On one hand, outside of Elliott and Earnhardt, he’s the only one to legitimately contend for a victory this season, and if you take away the points penalty incurred to failing post race inspection earlier this year, he’d be within 10 points of Earnhardt, regardless of whether he missed another race or not. But on the other, Larson’s seven finishes off the lead lap are the most of any viable contender for the chase. Larson hasn’t finished worse than 19th over the last eight races, and that has been what’s enabled him to creep back into the points picture and still have a chance to advance without a win. The upcoming schedule also would seem to favor Larson. While he didn’t finish well at Bristol, he had a very fast racecar and spoke gleefully about returning in August and has shown to be fast on concrete. He’s finished in the top ten in each of his two starts at both Indianapolis and Darlington, and was third behind Elliott and Joey Logano at Michigan earlier this year. The trick for Larson will be to figure out how to balance between going aggressively for a win to lock himself in, and being smart and taking care of his car and consistently gaining points to get in that way. Where he stands in the points will dictate his approach, but I expect him to get to Richmond needing just to survive with a top ten finish and hope someone behind him doesn’t pull a Jeremy Mayfield and win and get in. However, his margin for error is small, he can’t afford to crash out of another race, and if he has a top five finish, he can’t afford to fade late to 15th from driving too hard trying to win the race. The speed is there at times for this team, and if Larson just takes care of things the rest of the way, he should be able to overcome the deficit he faces in the points standings.

Chances of making the chase – 43%

Ricky Stenhouse -41 Even with his top ten finish at Loudon on Sunday, the 40th place showing at Kentucky after an early crash might have been the nail in the coffin to Stenhouse’s chase hopes. As with Bayne, the improvement at Roush is very evident, but a day like that when you don’t post enough top tens and fives to make up for it is difficult to overcome this late in the game. Stenhouse has 11 finishes of 16th or better, the only problem is 8 of those are in the 12th-16th range, and that just won’t get it done when you’ve got three finishes of 25th or worse over the last five races. While he benefits if Earnhardt can’t go at Darlington, it’s still not going to be enough to give one confidence that he can run down and out perform the likes of Larson, Blaney and Kahne over the next seven races. His best hopes are to hope the pressure forces some of his competitors into some mistakes over the next few weeks to give him a window, but at this point, there are just too many teams to jump without winning a race, and despite all the improvements at Roush, this team just isn’t there yet.

Chances of making the chase – 3%

A.J. Allmendinger -43 – This pretty much all comes down to one race, and one race alone. And this one particular race will have huge ramifications across the board. Since failing to win at Sonoma, Watkins Glen has been circled by this team. Allmendinger’s year started more promising with the team showing more speed on ovals at the beginning of the year, but the season has quickly spiraled out of control and confidence and momentum appear to be shot. The only way they’re getting in is to win at Watkins Glen. And truth be told, to a man, many might tell you they like having a track they’re that good at being their one shot deal, and like the odds of pulling that off more than pointing their way in. Considering the deficit he faces, and especially factoring in the way he’s run lately, Allmendinger and everyone in this chase battle knows it’s all or nothing at Watkins Glen. The pressure on him and his team will be immense, and recently they’ve succumbed to such pressures on road courses and have not handled it well. Can they get it together at Watkins Glen? My gut has told me yes, and it’s me told me yes for a couple of weeks now. There are a lot of drivers in this battle for the final chase spots that don’t want to see Allmendinger reduce the number of available spots from five to four, but it’s very possible he does that. If you wonder why I may seem a little less than confident in Dillon and McMurray getting into the chase despite healthy points leads, it’s because I think there is a really decent chance Allmendinger goes to victory lane in the Finger Lakes region of New York and takes away one of those spots. Assuming Elliott and Newman get in, which, they absolutely should, we’d essentially be down to two spots should Allmendinger win at Watkins Glen. I almost considered doing two different chase odds for each driver, one if Allmendinger wins, and one if he doesn’t, because it’s that big a game changer. If Allmendinger doesn’t win at Watkins Glen, his chances of making the chase drop to essentially less than 1%, even if he gets a second place finish and has a nice points day.

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A repeat performance of 2014 for A.J. Allmendinger could flip the race to the chase on it’s ear and create havoc over the final races of the regular season

Chances of making the chase – 25%

Greg Biffle  -51 – It’s the case of too little too late for Greg Biffle. The good news is the team has put together three top ten finishes in a row. The bad news is that 11 finishes of 18th or worse over the first 16 races dug a points hole that is more than likely going to be too difficult to climb out of. A lot can happen over seven races, and a couple bad races by some of the guys Biffle is pursuing, and potentially a longer absence by Earnhardt, Biffle could find himself still holding on to a chance as they near Darlington and Richmond. And much like Kasey Kahne and the 5 team, Biffle’s team holds a definitive advantage in experience. Do they have the speed to win a race and secure a spot that way? Likely not. And if anyone in front of them were to win a race, it would almost certainly spell the end of their quest. However, considering where this team was, that they’re even on the outskirts of the discussion is a testament to the fight and drive from both the driver and team. If Biffle can sniff the chase when they arrive to Michigan, don’t be surprised if he makes things very uncomfortable for the guys he’s chasing.

Chances of making the chase – 1.5%

Other (must win) – There really isn’t anyone here you think might be able to steal a win, but you simply never know, so we much acknowledge the possibility. One potential candidate would be Clint Bowyer perhaps getting a win at Watkins Glen or at Bristol. Aric Almirola has run better lately, but thinking a win is possible is still an extreme reach.

Chances of making the chase – 0.5%

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No Ordinary Rookie

 

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Past meets future as Jeff Gordon passes the torch to a new generation, and a new legacy for the 24.

Coming into a big time sport as a rookie with enormous hype is one of the tougher challenges in sports. The pressure, the change in lifestyle, the new found fame, it’s no wonder so many rookies have crumbled under such expectations, some to the point of no recovery.

But imagine the challenge when not only you are hyped up to be the next great thing, BUT you are also the immediate successor to a legend. And by legend, I mean legend. I’m not talking about trying to replace an all-star like Jason Heyward in your lineup, or Joe Johnson on your basketball team. I’m talking about trying to replace Babe Ruth or Kobe Bryant.

Jeff Gordon is in the argument for the greatest NASCAR driver of all-time. Not just of his era, but of any era, and his three year stretch from 1996 thru 1998 is still one of the most dominant periods in modern American sports, but that’s another story for another day. Being tabbed to replace Jeff Gordon, with Gordon going out while making NASCAR’s version of the Final Four and competing for a fifth championship, has few valid comparisons in sports history.

While similar to replacing Joe Montana in San Francisco, or Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, it’s still different. In football you still have 52 other guys on the roster. You still have the same team, with the same logo, and many of the same players. You still have the same history of an organization that existed before that particular legend became a part of it. At the end of the day, you’re still one of many people to play quarterback for the 49ers or for the Colts.

What Chase is doing replacing Jeff Gordon is almost unparalleled. The only person to ever win a Sprint Cup race in a car numbered 24 is, for the time being anyway, Jeff Gordon. The commercial isn’t hyperbole or inaccurate in anyway, 24 is more than a number. It is a legacy all on it’s own, and it’s a legacy created by one man.

But within the past five to seven years it began to dawn on us all that at some point, that one man would no longer continue to drive competitively at this level. So what then? Would Rick Hendrick, the owner who took a chance on the fast but crash happy 20-year-old kid back in the early 90s retire the number? Or would he look for a successor? And would it be an established veteran or would he try to repeat history with another young hotshot?

In February of 2011 the plan began to take shape when Rick Hendrick signed a 15-year-old high school freshman from Georgia to a multi-year driver agreement.

The driver? Chase Elliott. You know, son of another NASCAR legend, Georgia’s favorite son, Bill Elliott.

By 2013 Elliott was winning races in the truck series, and by 2014 was running full-time in the Xfinity Series, where as an 18-year-old rookie he not only won three races, he also took home Most Popular Driver, Rookie of the Year, and the series championship.

By January of 2015, with Jeff Gordon announcing that 2015 would be his last season of competitive racing, Elliott was tabbed with the most pressure packed responsibility since Kevin Harvick slid into the seat of Richard Childress’ GM Goodwrench Chevrolet in February of 2001 following the death of Dale Earnhardt.

Fast forward to 2016 with Elliott coming off a 2015 season in which he followed up his championship by finishing second in points and winning another race. For the first time since November of 1992, a premier series NASCAR event was set to take place without Jeff Gordon in it.

However, the 24 car would be there. But with a new look, though the number kept it’s same font and style, new sponsors, and more importantly, a new driver.

All eyes were on the 20-year-old who promptly went out and won the pole for the biggest race of the year. Typically, the fastest qualifier is awarded the Coors Light Pole Award. Only Elliott isn’t of legal drinking age and ineligible for such an aware, or to carry such a decal on his racecar.

So here we are, hot shot 20-year-old kid considered the next big thing, replacing one of the greatest to ever participate in the sport and taking over a car number that’s a legacy and as iconic as almost any number in sports, on the pole for the biggest race of the year, and, oh yeah, in addition to the huge shoes of Jeff Gordon to fill, there’s the small matter of being Bill Elliott’s son.

Nobody can sustain these kind of expectations and possibly live up to the hype, right? Surely the kid is going to crumble. Maybe not beyond repair, but we should be pumping the brakes a bit on his rookie season, no? Give him a couple of years to really get his feet wet and settle into his role, right?

No, not this rookie. Not this rookie who, well, really doesn’t seem like a rookie.

We know what happened at Daytona, the 500 turned into a disaster early. Immediately the criticism began, and it looked like maybe the moment was too big right now. It was too much pressure. Maybe Rick Hendrick had brought him along too soon.

Or maybe any such notion couldn’t be further from the truth.

Elliott rebounded from that 37th place finish with a strong top ten run at his home track of Atlanta the next week, only to have a very questionable pit strategy decision by crew chief Alan Gustafson cost him multiple positions late in the race at Las Vegas and leave him mired back in the pack after running up in the top ten all race long. Eventually Elliott would get collected in a wreck not of his own making and finish 38th.

In an interview following the Las Vegas wreck Elliott seemed extremely frustrated, and placed a lot of the blame, needlessly I might add, on himself. He knew what was happening. He had wrecked in two of the first three races, and the naysayers were going to get louder.

Well that’s as loud as they’ve gotten. Since the wreck at Vegas Elliott has done nothing but silence even the most skeptical of critics. Over the last six races Elliott has an average finish of 8.5 and has moved himself solidly into playoff position. But that doesn’t even tell the whole story. He has established himself as a viable threat to win races.

Over the last four races Elliott has finishes of 6th, 20th, 5th, and 4th. In three of those four races he found himself in second position at some point in the race’s final 15%, and without late cautions at California, Texas and Bristol, could very well be looking at a streak of three runner-up finishes in his last four races, though many would argue without a caution at Texas, he may very well have won.

But to truly appreciate what Elliott has done so far this year, you have to put it into perspective by comparing it to the debuts of some other stars in recent, or not so recent, memory.

The chart below illustrates how some of NASCAR’s top drivers and strongest rookie campaigns compare to Elliott’s after the first eight events of their first full-time season. With rookies being rookies and apt to putting cars into fences, the chart also looks at their average finish by taking away the two worst performances in the season’s first eight races, to give a better indicator of how they finished when they, well, actually finished.

Age Top 5 Top 10 Avg St Avg Fin Best 6 Avg Points
Chase Elliott 20 2 5 12 15.8 8.5 12
Jeff Gordon 21 2 4 10.7 16.5 10.7 12
Kyle Busch 20 1 2 24.3 21.4 15.7 25
Jimmie Johnson 26 1 5 14.7 13.3 7.2 7
Tony Stewart 28 0 2 9.9 16.8 11.7 10
Dale Earnhardt Sr 28 2 3 9.1 11.8 8.3 8
Bill Elliott 27 4 5 11 11.5 6.8 5
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25 1 2 8.5 22 16.3 19
Ryan Newman 24 2 4 13.4 19.8 12.8 16
Davey Allison 26 1 2 7.4 18.8 18.8 21
Matt Kenseth 28 0 2 17.1 21.8 15.7 21
Joey Logano 19 0 0 25.4 29.1 25.3 33
Kyle Larson 21 2 4 16.4 16.1 10.7 14
Jeff Gordon 2015 1 5 11.7 16.3 9.3 9

 

*note, Davey Allison didn’t attempt races six through eight, but came back and won race number nine at Talladega, and won again at Dover, giving him two wins in his first eight starts of his rookie, but not within the first eight races of the season*

Elliott compares favorably to the majority on this list. In fact, factoring age, depending on which aspect you value more heavily, an argument could be made that his start to his career has been as impressive, if not more, than anyone on this list.

The only drivers on this list to have five top ten finishes among the first eight races are Jimmie Johnson and then the father and son duo of Bill and Chase and Elliott. Bill Elliott was the only one to finish in the top five on more than two occasions, and the only one sitting in the top five in points (he would finish 3rd and capture his first career win in the season finale at Riverside) at this juncture of the season. However, it should also be noted that the elder Elliott had run 21 races the year before (not a full season) and despite having never run 75% of the schedule, had started nearly 100 races before the 1983 season began, so he wasn’t exactly a rookie.

While the Elliotts are the only ones on the list with five top tens and more than one top five finish, the Earnhardts are the only ones who won a race this early in the going of their rookie season. There is a reason NASCAR is known as such a family sport, after all.

Elliott’s average finish of 15.8 is topped by the asterisked elder Elliott, and then only Dale Earnhardt and Jimmie Johnson. I guess that’s not bad company. I mean, the two non Elliotts only combined to win nearly 150 races and 13 championships between them.

And just for good measure, I took the time to see how Elliott is doing through eight races this year as compared to that guy he took over for, that Gordon fella.

I’d say he’s doing a mighty fine job stepping into those shoes in the 24 car. And he’s only trending upwards.

I said weeks ago I thought Richmond would be Elliott’s first win. His career average finish in the Xfinity Series there is 2.5, having finished second on two occasions, won once, and fifth in his other appearance. With the trend of how the team has been running lately, that prediction may very well come true.

But even if it doesn’t, Elliott has proven Hendrick knew what he was doing, and that the 24 would be in good hands and Elliott is not only capable of simply carrying the number into the future, but he may very well be able to give that number a new legacy for an entirely new generation of fans.

 

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